Published on: 2025-04-24

Intelligence Report: Hezbollah is ‘still stronger than several Lebanese armies’ expert warns – The Jerusalem Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Hezbollah remains a significant force in Lebanon, potentially stronger than the Lebanese army. The group’s influence poses a challenge to national reconstruction efforts and stability. Strategic engagement and international support are crucial to counterbalance Hezbollah’s power and facilitate Lebanon’s recovery.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

General Analysis

Hezbollah’s entrenched position in Lebanon is a result of its historical evolution from a militant organization to a political entity with substantial influence. Despite setbacks, it retains military capabilities that surpass those of the Lebanese army. The group’s ability to disrupt governmental functions and its potential to stage a coup are significant concerns. Hezbollah’s strategic use of weapon storage and its alignment with regional actors further complicate Lebanon’s political landscape.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The persistence of Hezbollah’s power could destabilize Lebanon’s fragile political environment, hinder economic recovery, and exacerbate sectarian tensions. The group’s actions may provoke regional conflicts, particularly with Israel, and complicate international diplomatic efforts. The risk of Hezbollah transforming into a more politically dominant entity akin to other global terrorist organizations poses a long-term threat to regional security.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance international diplomatic efforts to support Lebanon’s government in reducing Hezbollah’s influence.
• Strengthen Lebanon’s military capabilities through international aid and training programs.
• Encourage regional cooperation to address shared security concerns and mitigate the risk of conflict escalation.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best case: Successful disarmament and integration of Hezbollah into a political framework.
  • Worst case: Hezbollah stages a coup, leading to increased regional instability.
  • Most likely: Continued tension with periodic confrontations, but no major shifts in power dynamics.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

– Moshe Elad
– Michel Aoun
– Najib Mikati
– Joseph Aoun
– Naim Qassem

6. Thematic Tags

(‘national security threats, regional focus’, ‘counter-terrorism’, ‘political stability’, ‘Lebanon’)