Published on: 2025-04-18

Intelligence Report: Hezbollah Vows to Keep Arms, Rejects Disarmament Until Full Israeli Withdrawal

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Hezbollah has declared its intention to retain its weapons until Israel fully withdraws from Lebanese territories, citing security concerns and alleged Israeli ceasefire violations. This stance complicates regional stability and Lebanese political dynamics. Immediate dialogue appears unlikely without significant concessions from Israel.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied:

General Analysis

Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem, emphasized the necessity of maintaining the group’s arsenal for Lebanon’s defense, accusing Israel of failing to adhere to UN Resolution 1701. The resolution mandates Israeli withdrawal and cessation of hostilities, which Hezbollah claims have not been met. This rhetoric reinforces Hezbollah’s position as a defender of Lebanese sovereignty, potentially bolstering its domestic support despite international pressure to disarm. The group’s willingness to negotiate post-withdrawal indicates a strategic positioning rather than immediate intent to disarm.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing tension between Hezbollah and Israel poses significant security risks, including potential military escalations. The impasse over disarmament affects Lebanese political stability, with Hezbollah’s military capabilities remaining a polarizing issue. Economically, continued instability may deter foreign investment and aid, exacerbating Lebanon’s financial crisis. The situation also impacts regional geopolitics, influencing alliances and diplomatic efforts.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Encourage diplomatic engagement between Lebanon and Israel to address ceasefire violations and territorial disputes, potentially involving international mediators.
• Support initiatives that strengthen Lebanese state institutions to reduce reliance on non-state actors for national defense.
• Monitor regional developments closely to anticipate potential escalations and prepare contingency plans for various conflict scenarios.
• Promote dialogue within Lebanon to address political divisions and build consensus on national defense strategies.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Naim Qassem, Joseph Aoun, Morgan Ortagus