Published on: 2025-06-24

Intelligence Report: How a War-Torn Myanmar Plays a Critical Role in China’s Rare Earth Dominance

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Myanmar’s geopolitical instability significantly impacts China’s rare earth supply chain, which is crucial for global high-tech manufacturing. China’s reliance on Myanmar for heavy rare earth elements like dysprosium and terbium underscores a strategic vulnerability. Immediate attention is required to address potential supply chain disruptions and environmental concerns stemming from extraction practices.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Cognitive Bias Stress Test

Potential biases were identified in the assessment of China’s rare earth strategy, emphasizing the need for diversified sourcing to mitigate over-reliance on Myanmar.

Bayesian Scenario Modeling

Probabilistic forecasting indicates a high likelihood of continued conflict in Myanmar, potentially escalating supply chain disruptions.

Network Influence Mapping

The influence of non-state actors, such as the Kachin Independence Army, on rare earth production and export routes was mapped, revealing significant control over key resources.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The reliance on Myanmar exposes China to geopolitical risks, including potential supply chain disruptions due to ongoing civil conflict. Environmental degradation from extraction practices poses long-term sustainability challenges. Additionally, the involvement of armed groups in resource control could lead to increased regional instability and international scrutiny.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Encourage diversification of rare earth sources to reduce dependency on Myanmar and enhance supply chain resilience.
• Implement international environmental standards in extraction processes to mitigate ecological impact.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Stabilization in Myanmar leads to secure and sustainable resource extraction.
  • Worst Case: Escalating conflict disrupts supply chains, causing global shortages and price spikes.
  • Most Likely: Continued instability with intermittent supply disruptions and environmental challenges.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Gracelin Baskaran, David Merriman, Yue Wang

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, supply chain vulnerabilities, environmental impact, regional instability