Published on: 2025-09-12

Intelligence Report: How conflict is impacting Nigeria’s education system – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The ongoing conflict in Nigeria is severely disrupting the education system, with a significant number of schools closed and millions of children affected. The most supported hypothesis suggests that insecurity and inadequate government intervention are the primary drivers of this educational disruption. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action includes enhancing security measures and increasing government support to ensure educational continuity.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The primary cause of educational disruption in Nigeria is the direct impact of conflict and insecurity, leading to school closures and displacement of students and teachers.

Hypothesis 2: The disruption is primarily due to systemic failures in government response and resource allocation, exacerbated by conflict but not solely caused by it.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis 1 is better supported by evidence of widespread school closures and the direct link to conflict zones, as reported by multiple sources. Hypothesis 2 lacks sufficient evidence of systemic failure as the primary cause, though it remains a contributing factor.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions:
– Conflict zones are directly correlated with school closures.
– Government interventions are insufficient or misallocated.

Red Flags:
– Underreporting of school closures and affected children.
– Potential bias in attributing all educational disruptions to conflict without considering other systemic issues.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The continued disruption of education poses long-term risks to Nigeria’s socio-economic stability. A generation of children may face limited educational opportunities, leading to increased unemployment and poverty. There is a risk of radicalization among displaced youth, exacerbating regional instability. The lack of educational infrastructure may also hinder future economic development.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance security measures around schools in conflict-prone areas to ensure safe access to education.
• Increase government funding and international aid to support educational infrastructure and displaced students.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Improved security and government intervention lead to the reopening of schools and educational recovery.
  • Worst Case: Continued conflict and inadequate response result in a lost generation with severe socio-economic repercussions.
  • Most Likely: Partial improvements with ongoing challenges in conflict zones, requiring sustained intervention.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Busola Rafiat Ojo Oba
– Efe Johnson
– Umar Rabat
– Kofi Asare

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, education disruption, regional focus, conflict impact