Published on: 2025-03-12

Intelligence Report: How ISIS and al-Qaeda are expanding across North Africa – The Jerusalem Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

ISIS and al-Qaeda are leveraging trans-Saharan smuggling networks to expand their influence across North Africa, posing a growing threat to regional and European security. The entrenchment of these groups in illicit trade routes facilitates the movement of weapons, drugs, and militants, bypassing traditional security measures. Comprehensive regional cooperation and international support are critical to countering this threat.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The Sahel region has become a global hotspot for terrorism, with ISIS and al-Qaeda exploiting trans-Saharan smuggling networks to sustain operations. Groups such as Jamaa Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara collaborate with local actors in Niger and Mali, integrating funding activities and logistical support. This reliance on smuggling networks allows these organizations to bypass traditional security measures, taking advantage of the vast, poorly governed spaces in the Sahara. Recent intelligence suggests JNIM may be shifting strategy to focus on economic objectives, potentially distancing itself from al-Qaeda while maintaining operational capacity.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The expansion of jihadist groups in North Africa poses significant risks to national security, regional stability, and economic interests. Countries such as Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco face heightened threats due to the growing jihadist presence. The reliance on smuggling networks raises the risk of external attacks, with North Africa and Europe as primary targets. Political instability in Libya and the ungoverned territories in the Sahel continue to serve as breeding grounds for extremism.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance regional cooperation and intelligence sharing to disrupt smuggling networks.
• Strengthen border security and address socioeconomic vulnerabilities that jihadists exploit.
• Support initiatives like the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership to bolster regional governments’ capabilities.
• Implement regulatory and technological changes to improve surveillance and counterterrorism efforts.

Outlook:

In the best-case scenario, increased international collaboration and effective counterterrorism strategies could significantly disrupt jihadist operations. In the worst-case scenario, continued instability and ineffective responses may lead to further entrenchment of these groups, increasing the risk of attacks in North Africa and Europe. The most likely outcome involves a protracted struggle with incremental gains in counterterrorism efforts, contingent on sustained international support and regional cooperation.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant entities such as Jamaa Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara. These groups are deeply embedded in the trans-Saharan smuggling networks, collaborating with local actors to bolster their operations.