Published on: 2025-09-03

Intelligence Report: How the UN Can Act Decisively to End Genocide in Gaza – Juancole.com

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that international pressure, through coordinated trade boycotts and arms embargoes, can compel Israel to alter its policies in Gaza. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: The UN should facilitate a coalition of member states to impose economic and military sanctions on Israel to pressure compliance with international law.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: Coordinated international sanctions and boycotts will pressure Israel to end its occupation and military actions in Gaza.
Hypothesis 2: Despite international pressure, Israel will maintain its current policies due to geopolitical alliances and internal political dynamics.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis 1 is supported by evidence of past successful international sanctions (e.g., South Africa) and current grassroots movements advocating for action. Hypothesis 2 is supported by Israel’s strong alliances, particularly with the United States, and historical resilience to international pressure.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions:
– Hypothesis 1 assumes that economic and military pressure will outweigh Israel’s geopolitical alliances.
– Hypothesis 2 assumes that Israel’s alliances will continue to provide sufficient support to withstand international pressure.

Red Flags:
– Potential bias in assuming that all countries will uniformly enforce sanctions.
– Lack of clarity on the enforcement mechanisms for proposed sanctions.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– Economic sanctions could destabilize regional markets, impacting global supply chains.
– Escalation of military conflict if sanctions are perceived as acts of aggression.
– Potential cyber retaliation from state or non-state actors aligned with Israel.
– Geopolitical tensions could rise, particularly involving U.S. interests in the region.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Form a coalition of willing countries to implement targeted sanctions and arms embargoes.
• Engage in diplomatic efforts to mediate between Israel and Palestine, leveraging sanctions as a bargaining tool.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Israel complies with international demands, leading to a peaceful resolution.
  • Worst Case: Increased conflict and regional instability.
  • Most Likely: Prolonged diplomatic stalemate with intermittent escalations.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Michael Higgins
– Turkey (as a state actor)
– Sweden and Netherlands (as state actors)

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, geopolitical strategy, international sanctions, Middle East conflict