Published on: 2025-03-30

Intelligence Report: Hundreds Of Thousands Of Afghans In Pakistan Brace For Deportations – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The impending deportation of hundreds of thousands of Afghans from Pakistan poses significant humanitarian and geopolitical challenges. The deportations, set to begin in March, could exacerbate the already dire conditions in Afghanistan, destabilize regional security, and strain international relations. Immediate diplomatic engagement and humanitarian assistance are recommended to mitigate potential crises.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The deportation order affects both documented and undocumented Afghans residing in Pakistan. Many Afghans fled to Pakistan following the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan. The Pakistani government’s decision to enforce deportations by March could lead to a humanitarian crisis, as Afghanistan is currently experiencing severe economic and social instability. The situation is further complicated by Pakistan’s accusations against the Taliban for harboring militants, increasing tensions between the two countries.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The deportation of Afghans from Pakistan could lead to several strategic risks:

• Humanitarian Crisis: The return of a large number of Afghans to an unstable Afghanistan could overwhelm local resources and exacerbate existing humanitarian challenges.
• Regional Instability: Increased tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan could destabilize the region, impacting neighboring countries and international interests.
• Security Concerns: The deportations may lead to increased recruitment by militant groups, posing a threat to regional and global security.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in diplomatic discussions with Pakistan to delay deportations and seek a humanitarian solution.
• Coordinate with international organizations to provide support and resources for Afghans at risk of deportation.
• Enhance intelligence sharing and security cooperation between Pakistan and Afghanistan to address mutual security concerns.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Diplomatic efforts lead to a postponement of deportations, allowing time for international aid and resettlement programs to be implemented.

Worst-case scenario: Mass deportations proceed, leading to a humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan and increased regional instability.

Most likely outcome: Partial deportations occur, with international pressure resulting in some humanitarian concessions and aid.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Farangi, Najibullah, Rashid Khattak, Hina, Obaidullah, and Maiwand Alami. These individuals are central to the narrative and provide insights into the personal impacts of the deportation orders.