Published on: 2025-02-14

Intelligence Report: ‘If I go home I will be arrested’ The dilemma of Indonesian HTS fighters in Syria – CNA

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Indonesian citizens who joined the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria face significant challenges if they attempt to return home. These individuals are considered foreign terrorist fighters and are subject to prosecution and imprisonment under Indonesian law. The current political climate in Indonesia shows a divide in opinions regarding their repatriation, with some leaders supporting reintegration through deradicalization programs, while others oppose it. This situation poses a potential security threat to Indonesia and requires careful management to balance national security with humanitarian considerations.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Indonesia’s legal framework to prosecute foreign fighters.

Weaknesses: Potential lack of infrastructure for effective deradicalization programs.

Opportunities: Repatriation could lead to successful reintegration and intelligence gathering.

Threats: Returning fighters may pose a security risk if not properly managed.

Cross-Impact Matrix

Events in Syria, such as the collapse of the Assad regime, could influence the stability of neighboring regions and impact the decision-making process in Indonesia regarding the repatriation of fighters.

Scenario Generation

Possible scenarios include successful repatriation and reintegration, increased domestic terrorism if fighters return unmanaged, or continued international pressure on Indonesia to address the issue.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The return of Indonesian HTS fighters poses significant risks to national security, including the potential for increased radicalization and domestic terrorism. Regional stability could be affected if these individuals are not effectively deradicalized. Economic interests may also be impacted if international relations are strained due to perceived inaction or mishandling of the situation.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Develop comprehensive deradicalization programs tailored to returning fighters.
• Enhance intelligence-sharing mechanisms with international partners.
• Implement regulatory changes to streamline the prosecution of foreign fighters.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful reintegration of returning fighters with minimal security incidents.
Worst-case scenario: Increased domestic terrorism and strained international relations.
Most likely outcome: A mixed approach with some successful reintegration and isolated security incidents.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Prabowo Subianto, Abu Ilyas, Ali Husni, and Adlini Ilma Ghaisany. Organizations include Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Indonesian government.