Published on: 2025-03-12

Intelligence Report: If The United States Doesn’t Build More Ships, China Will Rule The Waves – The Federalist

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The United States faces a critical challenge in maintaining its maritime dominance due to China’s rapid expansion in commercial and military shipbuilding. The decline in the U.S. shipbuilding industry poses significant risks to economic and national security. Immediate actions are required to revitalize the U.S. shipbuilding sector to counter China’s growing influence on global maritime commerce and military power.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

Historically, naval power has been a cornerstone of global influence, as demonstrated by the United States’ post-World War II maritime dominance. However, recent decades have seen a decline in the U.S. commercial shipping industry due to globalization and shifting priorities. In contrast, China has heavily subsidized its shipbuilding industry, resulting in a formidable presence in both commercial and military maritime sectors. China’s ability to rapidly convert commercial vessels for military use poses a strategic threat, particularly in the event of a conflict where the U.S. could face significant disruptions in essential goods and materials.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The strategic risks include:

• Loss of U.S. influence in global maritime trade and military operations.
• Increased vulnerability to supply chain disruptions during conflicts.
• Potential for China to leverage its commercial fleet for military purposes, enhancing its geopolitical ambitions.
• National security concerns due to Chinese control over foreign ports and infrastructure.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Revitalize the U.S. shipbuilding industry through government incentives and partnerships with private sectors.
• Enhance regulatory frameworks to support domestic shipbuilders and protect critical maritime infrastructure.
• Invest in technological advancements to improve the efficiency and competitiveness of U.S. shipyards.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: The U.S. successfully revitalizes its shipbuilding industry, regaining maritime dominance and securing its economic and national security interests.
Worst-case scenario: China’s maritime dominance continues to grow, leading to significant geopolitical shifts and increased risks to global stability.
Most likely outcome: Without immediate intervention, the U.S. will face ongoing challenges in countering China’s maritime influence, necessitating strategic adjustments in foreign policy and defense planning.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report references several individuals and entities involved in the maritime industry and geopolitical landscape:

• Donald Trump
• Joe Biden
• Dan Sullivan
• Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
• People’s Liberation Army (PLA)