Published on: 2026-01-25

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Intelligence Report: What al-Malikis return would mean for Iraq and the region

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The potential return of Nouri al-Maliki as Iraq’s Prime Minister could exacerbate sectarian tensions and destabilize the region, potentially reversing progress made since 2014. This development is likely to affect Iraq’s internal security and regional relations, with moderate confidence in this assessment.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: Al-Maliki’s return will lead to increased sectarian violence and political instability in Iraq. This is supported by his historical governance style, which included the exclusion of Sunni populations and the use of state apparatus for sectarian purposes. However, uncertainties remain about his current political strategy and regional support dynamics.
• Hypothesis B: Al-Maliki’s return could stabilize Iraq by leveraging his political experience and networks to foster a more inclusive government. This hypothesis is less supported due to his past policies and the current political climate, which may not favor inclusivity.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to al-Maliki’s historical governance patterns and the existing sectarian divisions in Iraq. Key indicators that could shift this judgment include changes in al-Maliki’s political alliances and policy announcements.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: Al-Maliki will continue his previous governance style; sectarian divisions remain a significant factor in Iraqi politics; regional actors will react similarly to past patterns.
• Information Gaps: Current intentions of al-Maliki regarding governance style; the stance of influential regional actors on his return; internal dynamics within Iraq’s political factions.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in historical accounts of al-Maliki’s governance; risk of deception in political rhetoric aimed at international audiences.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The return of al-Maliki could lead to increased sectarian conflict and undermine efforts towards national unity in Iraq. This development may also influence regional power dynamics and affect international relations.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential for increased Iranian influence in Iraq; strained relations with Sunni-majority neighboring countries.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Possible resurgence of extremist groups exploiting sectarian tensions; increased internal security challenges.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for increased propaganda and misinformation campaigns targeting sectarian divides.
• Economic / Social: Economic instability due to political uncertainty; potential for increased social unrest and displacement.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Monitor political developments and rhetoric from al-Maliki; engage with regional partners to assess their positions.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Strengthen diplomatic channels with Iraqi political factions; support inclusive governance initiatives and conflict resolution mechanisms.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Al-Maliki adopts inclusive policies, stabilizing Iraq.
  • Worst: Sectarian violence escalates, destabilizing the region.
  • Most-Likely: Increased sectarian tensions with sporadic violence.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Nouri al-Maliki – Former and potential future Prime Minister of Iraq
• Mohammed Shia al-Sudani – Incumbent Prime Minister of Iraq
• Not clearly identifiable from open sources in this snippet.

7. Thematic Tags

Counter-Terrorism, sectarian conflict, Iraq politics, regional stability, governance, Middle East geopolitics, political exclusion

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• ACH 2.0: Reconstruct likely threat actor intentions via hypothesis testing and structured refutation.
• Indicators Development: Track radicalization signals and propaganda patterns to anticipate operational planning.
• Narrative Pattern Analysis: Deconstruct and track propaganda or influence narratives.

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