Published on: 2025-06-02

Intelligence Report: In nod to normalization Jolani says Syria Israel ‘have common enemies’ – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The recent statements by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, leader of HTS, suggest a potential shift in regional dynamics, indicating a willingness to consider Israel as a strategic partner against common adversaries like Iran and Hezbollah. This development could influence regional security and diplomatic relations, particularly in light of recent international actions such as the lifting of sanctions on Syria by the European Union and the United States.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

ACH 2.0

Jolani’s statements may indicate a strategic recalibration, potentially seeking new alliances to counterbalance traditional adversaries. The hypothesis that HTS is realigning its stance towards Israel is supported by Jolani’s openness to dialogue.

Indicators Development

Monitor communications and public statements from HTS and related entities for changes in rhetoric towards Israel and Iran. Increased diplomatic engagements or symbolic gestures, such as proposed construction projects, could signal deeper strategic shifts.

Narrative Pattern Analysis

Jolani’s narrative of common enemies is a significant departure from traditional rhetoric. This could be an attempt to reshape HTS’s image and attract broader regional support by aligning against Iran and Hezbollah.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The potential normalization between HTS and Israel could destabilize existing alliances and provoke responses from Iran and Hezbollah, potentially escalating regional tensions. The shift may also impact Syria’s internal dynamics, affecting the balance of power and ongoing conflicts.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Monitor HTS’s communications for further indications of policy shifts and potential alliances.
• Engage in diplomatic dialogues to assess the sincerity and implications of HTS’s overtures towards Israel.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: HTS’s shift leads to reduced hostilities and opens pathways for broader peace negotiations.
  • Worst Case: Provokes retaliatory actions from Iran and Hezbollah, escalating regional conflicts.
  • Most Likely: Initial diplomatic engagements with cautious optimism, but significant skepticism remains.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, Donald Trump

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus