Published on: 2026-01-27

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Intelligence Report: Not normal to tolerate Pakistan’s continued use of terror as instrument of state India at UN Security Council

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

India has publicly condemned Pakistan’s alleged use of terrorism as a state policy at the UN Security Council, highlighting ongoing tensions between the two nations. The most likely hypothesis is that India aims to delegitimize Pakistan’s narrative on international platforms to counter perceived threats. This development affects regional stability and international diplomatic relations. Overall confidence in this assessment is moderate due to limited corroborating evidence from independent sources.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: India is leveraging international forums to counter Pakistan’s narrative and delegitimize its actions, supported by India’s strong statements at the UNSC and historical context of bilateral tensions. Key uncertainties include the internal motivations of both countries and the potential for diplomatic resolution.
• Hypothesis B: Pakistan is using international platforms to portray itself as a victim of Indian aggression, supported by Pakistan’s statements at the UNSC. Contradicting evidence includes India’s claims of Pakistan’s support for terrorism. The lack of independent verification of either country’s claims is a significant uncertainty.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to India’s proactive stance and historical patterns of seeking international support against Pakistan’s alleged actions. Indicators that could shift this judgment include new evidence of Pakistan’s actions or shifts in international diplomatic support.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: India and Pakistan will continue to use international platforms to advance their respective narratives; both countries’ actions are primarily driven by national security concerns; the international community remains divided on the issue.
• Information Gaps: Independent verification of claims made by both India and Pakistan; insights into internal decision-making processes of both governments.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential cognitive bias due to historical animosity; source bias from national representatives; possible manipulation of narratives for domestic or international audiences.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

This development could exacerbate regional tensions and impact international diplomatic relations. It may also influence global counter-terrorism efforts and regional security dynamics.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential for increased diplomatic isolation of Pakistan or India, depending on international reactions; risk of escalation into broader geopolitical conflicts.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Possible increase in cross-border tensions and terrorist activities; challenges in regional counter-terrorism cooperation.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for increased cyber operations and information warfare between India and Pakistan.
• Economic / Social: Economic impacts due to increased military spending; potential social unrest fueled by nationalist sentiments.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Enhance monitoring of cross-border activities; engage in diplomatic dialogues to de-escalate tensions; increase intelligence sharing with allies.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures against potential cyber and terrorist threats; strengthen regional partnerships for counter-terrorism efforts.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Diplomatic resolution and improved bilateral relations, triggered by successful negotiations.
  • Worst: Escalation into military conflict, triggered by a significant terrorist attack or military incident.
  • Most-Likely: Continued diplomatic standoff with periodic escalations, triggered by ongoing rhetorical exchanges.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Ambassador Parvathaneni Harish, India’s Permanent Representative to the UN
• Ambassador Asim Iftikhar Ahmad, Pakistan’s Ambassador to the UN
• United Nations Security Council

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, counter-terrorism, India-Pakistan relations, international diplomacy, UN Security Council, regional security, geopolitical tensions, state-sponsored terrorism

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Cognitive Bias Stress Test: Expose and correct potential biases in assessments through red-teaming and structured challenge.
• Bayesian Scenario Modeling: Use probabilistic forecasting for conflict trajectories or escalation likelihood.
• Network Influence Mapping: Map relationships between state and non-state actors for impact estimation.

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