Published on: 2025-11-04

Intelligence Report: India Israel need to work together in combating terrorism S Jaishankar – The Times of India

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The strategic judgment indicates a moderate confidence level in the hypothesis that India and Israel are strengthening their partnership to combat terrorism and enhance regional stability through economic and infrastructural collaboration. The recommended action is to support initiatives that foster bilateral cooperation while monitoring geopolitical tensions that may arise from this alliance.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: India and Israel are primarily focused on building a robust counter-terrorism alliance, leveraging their mutual interests in security and defense to address threats from radical groups in the Middle East and South Asia.

2. **Hypothesis B**: The collaboration between India and Israel is driven more by economic interests, with counter-terrorism efforts serving as a secondary agenda to facilitate broader trade and infrastructure projects like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis A is moderately supported due to the explicit emphasis on combating terrorism in the dialogue between the officials. However, Hypothesis B cannot be discounted as economic discussions were also prominent.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that both countries have aligned interests in counter-terrorism and that economic cooperation will naturally follow from security collaboration.
– **Red Flags**: The potential for geopolitical backlash from neighboring countries or entities opposed to this alliance, such as Iran or Palestinian groups, is a critical red flag. Additionally, the lack of detailed public information on the specific counter-terrorism strategies raises questions about the depth of this cooperation.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The alliance could lead to increased regional stability if successful, but it also risks escalating tensions with countries that view this partnership as a threat. Economic collaboration could enhance infrastructure and trade, but reliance on this partnership may expose vulnerabilities if geopolitical dynamics shift. Cybersecurity threats could also arise as a reaction to increased cooperation.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Encourage diplomatic engagement with neighboring countries to mitigate potential backlash.
• Enhance cybersecurity measures to protect joint projects and sensitive communications.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Strengthened bilateral ties lead to successful counter-terrorism operations and economic growth.
  • Worst Case: Geopolitical tensions escalate, leading to regional instability and economic setbacks.
  • Most Likely: Incremental progress in both security and economic domains, with ongoing challenges from external actors.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– S. Jaishankar
– Gideon Sa’ar
– Benjamin Netanyahu
– Narendra Modi

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus