Published on: 2025-10-29

Intelligence Report: Indians live longer than Pakistanis on average PM’s Economic Advisory Council Member flags – The Times of India

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The analysis suggests that India’s higher life expectancy compared to Pakistan is primarily due to India’s economic resilience and governance, while Pakistan’s economic instability and governance issues contribute to its lower life expectancy. The most supported hypothesis is that economic factors are the primary drivers of this disparity. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Strengthen economic and governance reforms in Pakistan to improve life expectancy.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Economic and Governance Hypothesis**: India’s higher life expectancy is primarily due to its stronger economic growth and better governance, which have led to improved healthcare and living conditions.
2. **Geopolitical and Social Policy Hypothesis**: The disparity in life expectancy is influenced by geopolitical tensions and social policies, with India’s focus on internal development and Pakistan’s historical focus on external conflicts and military spending detracting from social welfare.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: The economic and governance hypothesis assumes a direct correlation between economic growth and life expectancy. The geopolitical hypothesis assumes that military focus detracts significantly from social spending.
– **Red Flags**: Potential bias in attributing life expectancy solely to economic factors without considering healthcare policies. Lack of detailed data on healthcare infrastructure and social policies in both countries.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Economic Risks**: Continued economic instability in Pakistan could exacerbate public health issues and further widen the life expectancy gap.
– **Geopolitical Risks**: Persistent geopolitical tensions could divert resources from essential social services, impacting life expectancy.
– **Cascading Threats**: Economic collapse in Pakistan could lead to regional instability, affecting neighboring countries.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• **Mitigation**: Encourage economic reforms and governance improvements in Pakistan to stabilize the economy and enhance public health infrastructure.
• **Exploitation**: India should continue leveraging its economic growth to improve healthcare and social services.
• **Scenario Projections**:
  – **Best Case**: Pakistan implements successful reforms, stabilizing its economy and improving life expectancy.
  – **Worst Case**: Economic collapse leads to increased regional instability and humanitarian crises.
  – **Most Likely**: Gradual improvement in Pakistan’s economic conditions with targeted international support.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– **India**: Economic Advisory Council, World Bank
– **Pakistan**: International Monetary Fund (IMF), Financial Action Task Force (FATF)

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, economic stability, regional development, public health