Published on: 2025-06-22

Intelligence Report: Inside the Plot to Push Khamenei Aside – The Atlantic

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

A covert plan involving Iranian insiders aims to sideline Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, potentially altering Iran’s political landscape. This plot, driven by a mix of political, military, and clerical figures, seeks to establish a leadership committee to negotiate with the U.S. and Israel, possibly shifting Iran’s trajectory. The situation presents significant geopolitical risks, including potential escalation of regional conflicts.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

ACH 2.0

Analysis suggests the plotters aim to leverage internal and external pressures to initiate a leadership transition, potentially without Khamenei’s direct removal. The plan’s success hinges on the ability to manage internal dissent and external diplomatic pressures.

Indicators Development

Monitoring of communications and movements among key Iranian figures and their international counterparts is crucial. Increased dialogue with Gulf states and European entities may signal operational advancements.

Narrative Pattern Analysis

The narrative of a peaceful transition and negotiation with Western powers is being promoted to gain domestic and international support. This narrative contrasts with the current regime’s more confrontational stance.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The plot could destabilize Iran’s internal politics, leading to power struggles and potential civil unrest. Regionally, it may provoke military responses from Israel or the U.S., especially if Iran’s nuclear ambitions are perceived as escalating. Economically, sanctions and market instability could follow, impacting global oil prices.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance intelligence-sharing with regional allies to monitor developments and preempt potential conflicts.
• Prepare contingency plans for various scenarios, including leadership transition, military escalation, and diplomatic negotiations.
• Engage in diplomatic efforts to support peaceful resolution and stability in Iran.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Hassan Rouhani, Mostafa Najafi

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, geopolitical instability, leadership transition, Middle East politics