Published on: 2025-04-23

Intelligence Report: Inside the pro-Israel Dominican Ultra-Right Pushing for Ethnic Cleansing Against Haitian Immigrants

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The report highlights the activities of an ultra-right group in the Dominican Republic advocating for the expulsion of Haitian immigrants. This movement, characterized by its neo-Nazi affiliations and pro-Israel stance, poses significant risks of ethnic violence and destabilization within the region. Immediate attention is required to monitor and mitigate potential escalations.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Scenario Analysis

Potential scenarios include increased violence against Haitian communities, further militarization of ultra-right groups, and potential international condemnation affecting diplomatic relations.

Key Assumptions Check

Assumptions that the Dominican government can control these groups without international intervention may be flawed. The potential for internal security forces to be compromised by sympathizers should be considered.

Indicators Development

Key indicators include increased ultra-right propaganda, recruitment activities, and any shifts in government rhetoric or policy regarding immigration and ethnic relations.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The rise of ultra-right movements could lead to significant ethnic violence, destabilizing the region and potentially impacting tourism and foreign investment. There is also a risk of these ideologies spreading to neighboring countries, exacerbating regional tensions.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance intelligence monitoring of ultra-right groups and their activities.
• Engage in diplomatic efforts to address and mitigate ethnic tensions.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Peaceful resolution through dialogue and policy reforms.
  • Worst Case: Widespread ethnic violence and regional instability.
  • Most Likely: Continued tension with intermittent violent incidents.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Notable figures include Joaquín Balaguer, Rafael Trujillo, Luis Abinader, Leonel Fernández, and Abel Martínez. These individuals are referenced in the context of historical and current political influences.

6. Thematic Tags

(‘national security threats, ethnic violence, regional stability, ultra-right movements’)