Published on: 2026-01-04

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Intelligence Report: What is happening to the Internet in Venezuela Did the US use cyber capabilities

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The U.S. military operation in Venezuela, which included the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, coincided with significant internet outages in Caracas, reportedly linked to power cuts. There is moderate confidence that U.S. cyber capabilities were employed to disrupt power and internet services as part of the operation. This development affects Venezuelan citizens, U.S.-Venezuelan relations, and regional stability.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The U.S. used cyber capabilities to intentionally disrupt power and internet services in Caracas to facilitate the capture of Nicolás Maduro. Supporting evidence includes President Trump’s statements and the timing of outages. However, there is uncertainty about the specific methods used and the extent of U.S. involvement.
• Hypothesis B: The internet outages and power cuts were coincidental or caused by internal Venezuelan infrastructure issues, exacerbated by the U.S. military operation. This hypothesis is less supported due to the lack of evidence of pre-existing infrastructure issues and the correlation with the U.S. operation.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the alignment of reported facts and statements from U.S. leadership. Key indicators that could shift this judgment include technical analysis of the power grid and cyber forensic evidence.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The U.S. has the capability and willingness to use cyber operations in foreign interventions; Venezuelan infrastructure is vulnerable to cyberattacks; statements from U.S. officials are accurate reflections of operational details.
• Information Gaps: Detailed technical analysis of the power and internet disruptions; confirmation of cyber methods used; Venezuelan government’s internal communications and response.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in U.S. official statements aiming to project power; Venezuelan state media may underreport or misrepresent events to maintain control.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

This development could lead to increased geopolitical tensions and influence the regional power dynamics. The use of cyber capabilities in military operations sets a precedent that may alter future conflict engagements.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential escalation of U.S.-Venezuelan tensions; impact on U.S. relations with other Latin American countries.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Possible increase in anti-U.S. sentiment and retaliatory actions by Venezuelan or allied groups.
• Cyber / Information Space: Increased scrutiny on U.S. cyber operations; potential for retaliatory cyber actions by state or non-state actors.
• Economic / Social: Disruption of Venezuelan economy and social stability due to power and internet outages; potential for increased migration.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Monitor Venezuelan communications and infrastructure for further disruptions; engage with regional allies to assess impacts.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures for potential retaliatory cyber threats; strengthen partnerships with regional allies to stabilize the situation.
• Scenario Outlook: Best: Stabilization and restoration of Venezuelan governance with minimal conflict. Worst: Escalation into broader regional conflict with significant cyber warfare. Most-Likely: Continued instability with sporadic cyber and political tensions.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Nicolás Maduro, Former President of Venezuela
• Donald Trump, Former U.S. President
• NetBlocks, Internet monitoring organization
• POLITICO, News organization

7. Thematic Tags

cybersecurity, cyber capabilities, U.S.-Venezuela relations, internet outages, geopolitical tensions, military operations, regional stability, cyber warfare

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Adversarial Threat Simulation: Model and simulate actions of cyber adversaries to anticipate vulnerabilities and improve resilience.
• Indicators Development: Detect and monitor behavioral or technical anomalies across systems for early threat detection.
• Bayesian Scenario Modeling: Quantify uncertainty and predict cyberattack pathways using probabilistic inference.
• Network Influence Mapping: Map influence relationships to assess actor impact.

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