Published on: 2025-10-22

Intelligence Report: IOM and CCCPA Sign Memorandum of Understanding to Advance Peace Security and Migration Governance in Middle East and Africa – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the Cairo International Center for Conflict Resolution, Peacekeeping, and Peacebuilding (CCCPA) is a strategic move aimed at enhancing peace, security, and migration governance in the Middle East and Africa. The most supported hypothesis suggests that this partnership will strengthen regional stability and improve migration management. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Monitor the implementation of the MoU and assess its impact on regional stability and migration patterns.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The MoU will lead to significant improvements in peace and security, effectively addressing the challenges of migration governance in the Middle East and Africa. This hypothesis is supported by the shared commitment of IOM and CCCPA to empower national institutions and communities, as well as their focus on capacity-building activities and integrated border governance.

Hypothesis 2: The MoU will have limited impact due to potential bureaucratic hurdles, lack of resources, and differing priorities among stakeholders. This hypothesis considers the complex political and economic landscape of the regions involved, which may hinder effective implementation.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions:
– Both organizations have the capacity and resources to implement the MoU effectively.
– Regional governments and institutions will cooperate and align with the goals of the MoU.

Red Flags:
– Potential lack of funding or political will from regional governments.
– Divergent priorities between IOM and CCCPA or among regional stakeholders.

Blind Spots:
– The impact of external geopolitical influences on the MoU’s implementation.
– Unanticipated socio-economic challenges that may arise during execution.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The MoU could enhance regional cooperation and stability, potentially reducing migration-related conflicts. However, failure to implement effectively could exacerbate existing tensions and undermine trust in international partnerships. Economic instability or political unrest in the regions could derail progress. Additionally, cyber threats or misinformation campaigns could disrupt communication and coordination efforts.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Monitor the progress of the MoU’s implementation and evaluate its impact on regional peace and migration governance.
• Engage with regional stakeholders to ensure alignment and address potential barriers to cooperation.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best case: Successful implementation leads to enhanced regional stability and improved migration management.
  • Worst case: Implementation fails, leading to increased regional tensions and migration challenges.
  • Most likely: Partial success with varying degrees of impact across different regions.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Mohammed Abdiker
– Amr El Sherbiny
– Seif Kandeel
– Othman Belbeisi
– Carlos Oliver Cruz

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional cooperation, migration governance, peacebuilding, Middle East, Africa