Published on: 2025-04-07

Intelligence Report: Iran-backed militias in Iraq are ready to disarm following Trumps threats – New York Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Iran-backed militias in Iraq are reportedly preparing to disarm in response to threats from Trump. This development follows discussions among militia leaders and Iraqi officials, aiming to prevent conflict escalation. The demilitarization process, if successful, could reduce regional tensions and limit Iran’s influence in Iraq.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The decision by Iran-backed militias to consider disarmament is a strategic move to avoid potential military confrontation. Key militia groups, including Kataeb Hezbollah, Al Nujaba, and others, met with Iraqi officials to discuss the process. The initiative is reportedly supported by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, indicating a coordinated effort to de-escalate tensions. The Iraqi government, led by Mohammed Shia Al Sudani, is actively engaging with these groups to ensure compliance and mitigate risks of airstrikes similar to those in Yemen.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The potential disarmament of militias could significantly impact regional stability. It may reduce Iran’s proxy influence in Iraq, aligning with broader efforts to isolate Tehran. However, there is a risk of non-compliance by factions unwilling to disband, which could lead to internal conflict or targeted military actions. The situation also poses economic implications, as stability in Iraq could attract foreign investment and aid.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage diplomatic engagement between Iraqi officials and militia leaders to ensure a smooth disarmament process.
• Monitor compliance and readiness of militias to disarm, leveraging intelligence assets for verification.
• Support initiatives that strengthen Iraq’s sovereignty and reduce external influences.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful disarmament leads to enhanced regional stability and reduced Iranian influence.
Worst-case scenario: Failure to disarm results in renewed conflict and increased regional tensions.
Most likely outcome: Partial compliance with ongoing negotiations and monitoring to ensure full disarmament.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations, including Kataeb Hezbollah, Al Nujaba, Mohammed Shia Al Sudani, Izzat Al Shahbandar, and Ibrahim Al Sumaidaie. These entities play crucial roles in the ongoing discussions and potential disarmament efforts.