Published on: 2025-04-07

Intelligence Report: Iran-backed militias in Iraq ready to disarm to avert Trump wrath – The Jerusalem Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Iran-backed militias in Iraq are reportedly preparing to disarm to avoid potential military action from the United States under the leadership of Trump. This decision comes after repeated warnings and discussions involving key Iraqi political figures and militia leaders. The disarmament initiative aims to prevent further escalation and maintain regional stability.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

Recent developments indicate a strategic shift among Iran-backed militias in Iraq. Discussions led by key figures such as Izzat al-Shahbndar and Mohammed Shia al-Sudani have advanced towards disarmament. Militia groups, including Kataib Hezbollah and Nujabaa, are considering compliance to avoid conflict with the United States and Israel. The militias are aware of the high stakes and potential consequences of continued military engagement.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The potential disarmament of these militias could significantly impact regional power dynamics. Risks include:

• Destabilization of Iran’s regional influence through its proxy network.
• Potential power vacuums in areas previously controlled by militias.
• Increased pressure on Iraqi government forces to maintain security and order.

The strategic risks also extend to the broader Middle East, where tensions involving Israel, Syria, and other regional actors could be influenced by these developments.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage diplomatic engagement between the Iraqi government and militia leaders to ensure a peaceful transition.
• Support initiatives to integrate former militia members into official security forces to maintain stability.
• Monitor regional responses, particularly from Iran and Israel, to anticipate further developments.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful disarmament leads to increased stability in Iraq and reduced tensions with the United States.

Worst-case scenario: Failure to disarm results in escalated conflict and potential military interventions.

Most likely outcome: Partial disarmament with ongoing negotiations and sporadic tensions as regional actors adjust to new power dynamics.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations, including:

• Izzat al-Shahbndar
• Mohammed Shia al-Sudani
• Kataib Hezbollah
• Nujabaa
• Kataib Sayye al-Shuhada
• Ansarullah al-Awfiyaa
• Islamic Resistance in Iraq