Published on: 2025-10-28

Intelligence Report: Iran Russia China playing ‘effective’ role in shaping new world order Leader’s adviser – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Iran, Russia, and China are increasingly collaborating to shape a new world order, challenging Western influence. The most supported hypothesis suggests this alliance is strategically deepening to counterbalance U.S. and European geopolitical dominance. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Strengthen alliances and monitor developments in the Iran-China-Russia axis.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Strategic Alliance Hypothesis**: Iran, Russia, and China are forming a strategic alliance to reshape global power dynamics, leveraging their historical ties and mutual interests to counter Western influence.
2. **Transactional Cooperation Hypothesis**: The cooperation between Iran, Russia, and China is primarily transactional, driven by short-term economic and political gains rather than a cohesive long-term strategy.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: The Strategic Alliance Hypothesis assumes a high level of trust and shared long-term goals among the three nations. The Transactional Cooperation Hypothesis assumes that economic and political pressures will limit the depth of cooperation.
– **Red Flags**: The narrative may overlook internal disagreements or competing interests among the three countries. There is a lack of detailed evidence on the operationalization of these partnerships beyond high-level agreements.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Geopolitical**: A strengthened Iran-Russia-China axis could shift regional power balances, particularly in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific.
– **Economic**: Potential for increased sanctions evasion and alternative economic systems that bypass Western financial mechanisms.
– **Cyber**: Enhanced cooperation could lead to joint cyber operations targeting Western interests.
– **Psychological**: This alliance may embolden other nations to resist Western influence, altering global diplomatic dynamics.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance intelligence-sharing with allies to monitor the Iran-Russia-China axis.
• Engage in diplomatic efforts to address potential grievances that may drive these nations closer together.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: The alliance remains superficial, with limited impact on global stability.
  • Worst Case: A cohesive bloc emerges, challenging Western hegemony and destabilizing key regions.
  • Most Likely: Continued cooperation with periodic tensions, primarily impacting regional dynamics.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Ali Akbar Velayati
– Cong Peiwu
– Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei
– Masoud Pezeshkian
– Vladimir Putin

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus