Published on: 2025-09-08

Intelligence Report: Iran’s security chief calls for stronger more tangible ties with Iraq amid global developments – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Iran is actively seeking to strengthen its bilateral relations with Iraq, potentially as a countermeasure to regional threats and global developments. The most supported hypothesis is that Iran aims to consolidate regional influence and counterbalance perceived threats from Israel and Western entities. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Monitor Iran-Iraq interactions closely and assess potential shifts in regional alliances.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis 1**: Iran seeks to strengthen ties with Iraq to consolidate regional influence and counterbalance Israeli and Western influence. This hypothesis is supported by statements emphasizing strategic cooperation and shared regional security interests.

2. **Hypothesis 2**: Iran’s call for stronger ties with Iraq is primarily a defensive strategy to secure its borders and deter potential aggression from Israel and its allies. This is supported by references to Israeli military actions and Iran’s retaliatory measures.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that Iraq is willing and able to enhance cooperation with Iran without significant internal or external opposition. Another assumption is that Iran’s intentions are purely defensive and not expansionist.
– **Red Flags**: The potential for Iraq to face pressure from Western allies to limit its engagement with Iran. The absence of explicit Iraqi government statements supporting increased cooperation raises questions about the depth of this bilateral commitment.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Geopolitical Risks**: Strengthening Iran-Iraq ties could destabilize regional power dynamics, potentially leading to increased tensions with Israel and its allies.
– **Economic Risks**: Enhanced cooperation may lead to economic sanctions or pressures on Iraq from Western countries.
– **Cyber and Psychological Dimensions**: Potential for increased cyber operations targeting Iranian and Iraqi infrastructure as a form of indirect conflict.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Monitor diplomatic engagements between Iran and Iraq for signs of deeper strategic alliances.
• Prepare for potential shifts in regional alliances that could affect global energy markets and security dynamics.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best: Strengthened Iran-Iraq ties lead to regional stability and economic growth.
  • Worst: Increased tensions lead to military confrontations involving regional and global powers.
  • Most Likely: Gradual increase in cooperation with periodic tensions due to external pressures.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Ali Larijani
– Seyye Ammar Hakim

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional focus, geopolitical strategy, Iran-Iraq relations