Published on: 2025-04-01

Intelligence Report: Iraq and Syrian leaders discuss future cooperation – The Jerusalem Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Iraq and Syria are engaging in discussions to enhance future cooperation amidst ongoing regional tensions and security threats. Key topics include political inclusivity in Syria, condemnation of Israeli actions, and potential economic collaboration. The discussions occur against a backdrop of regional power dynamics involving Iran and its affiliated militias.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The conversation between Iraq and Syria signifies a strategic alignment in response to shared security threats, notably from ISIS and regional military actions by Israel. Iraq’s emphasis on political inclusivity in Syria suggests a desire for stability, which could mitigate extremist influences. The potential for economic collaboration highlights mutual interests in strengthening bilateral ties, which may counterbalance external pressures from other regional actors like Iran and Israel.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing discussions between Iraq and Syria could shift regional alliances and power balances. Risks include:

• Escalation of tensions with Israel due to Iraq’s condemnation of airstrikes in Syria.
• Potential destabilization if Iran-backed militias in Iraq continue to operate independently, challenging Iraqi sovereignty.
• Economic collaboration could face obstacles from international sanctions or political opposition.

The strategic risk of increased Iranian influence through militias in Iraq and Syria remains a concern, potentially affecting U.S. and Gulf states’ interests in the region.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage diplomatic engagement between Iraq, Syria, and regional stakeholders to foster stability and reduce tensions.
• Support initiatives promoting political inclusivity in Syria to weaken extremist narratives.
• Monitor and regulate the activities of militias to ensure they align with national interests and do not exacerbate regional conflicts.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Iraq and Syria successfully enhance cooperation, leading to regional stability and economic growth.

Worst-case scenario: Increased tensions with Israel and unchecked militia activities lead to further regional instability.

Most likely scenario: Incremental progress in Iraq-Syria relations with ongoing challenges from external actors and internal political dynamics.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations:

• Mohammed Shia Al Sudani
• Ahmed Al Sharaa
• Qais Khazali
• Abbas Araghchi

These individuals are central to the discussions and developments in Iraq-Syria relations and the broader regional context.