Published on: 2025-02-23

Intelligence Report: Iraq Positions Itself for Diplomatic Role in Mideast Region – The Jerusalem Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Iraq is enhancing its diplomatic engagement in the Middle East, leveraging improved relations with Saudi Arabia to facilitate regional dialogues. This includes hosting talks between Russia and the United States and engaging with Iran and Syria on security matters. Iraq’s efforts aim to bolster regional stability and address issues such as border security and drug trafficking.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Improved diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia; strategic geographic position; active role in regional security discussions.
Weaknesses: Internal political instability; ongoing security challenges from groups like ISIS.
Opportunities: Potential to mediate regional conflicts; strengthen economic ties with neighboring countries.
Threats: Regional tensions, particularly involving Iran and Syria; potential spillover of conflicts.

Cross-Impact Matrix

Iraq’s diplomatic initiatives may positively influence regional stability, potentially reducing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, unresolved conflicts in Syria and the presence of ISIS could undermine these efforts.

Scenario Generation

Best-case scenario: Iraq successfully mediates regional conflicts, leading to enhanced stability and economic growth.
Worst-case scenario: Escalation of regional tensions negates diplomatic efforts, exacerbating security issues.
Most likely scenario: Incremental progress in regional diplomacy with ongoing challenges from security threats.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

Iraq’s diplomatic role could significantly impact regional security dynamics, potentially reducing tensions and fostering cooperation. However, persistent threats from ISIS and unresolved regional conflicts pose risks to stability and economic interests.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance intelligence-sharing mechanisms with regional partners to address security threats.
• Support diplomatic initiatives that promote dialogue and conflict resolution.
• Invest in infrastructure and economic development to strengthen Iraq’s domestic stability.

Outlook:

Iraq’s diplomatic efforts are likely to yield gradual improvements in regional relations, though security challenges will persist. Continued engagement with key regional players is essential to achieving long-term stability.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Eskandar Momeni, Mohammad Shia Al Sudani, Abdul Amir Kamel Al Shammari, Asaad Al Shaibani, Fuad Hussein, and Muthanna Amin. These individuals are involved in diplomatic and security discussions impacting Iraq’s regional role.