Published on: 2025-11-10

Intelligence Report: Iraq’s PM al-Sudani may win the elections but lose his post – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that while PM al-Sudani’s coalition may win a significant number of seats in the upcoming elections, internal fractures and rival political maneuvers will likely lead to his loss of the prime ministerial post. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Monitor coalition dynamics and potential defections closely, and engage in diplomatic efforts to stabilize post-election negotiations.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: Al-Sudani’s coalition will win the elections, but internal divisions and rival political strategies will prevent him from securing a second term as Prime Minister. This hypothesis is supported by the transactional nature of political loyalty within his coalition and the potential for defections.

Hypothesis 2: Al-Sudani will successfully leverage his coalition’s electoral success to secure a second term, using state resources and political negotiations to maintain loyalty and build a stable government. This hypothesis relies on his ability to deliver services and maintain balanced relations with key international players.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions:
– Hypothesis 1 assumes that political loyalty is primarily transactional and that rival factions will actively seek to undermine al-Sudani.
– Hypothesis 2 assumes that al-Sudani can effectively use state resources to maintain coalition unity and that his past performance will translate into continued support.

Red Flags:
– The presence of influential tribal leaders and defectors within the coalition suggests potential instability.
– The reliance on state resources for political leverage could lead to corruption and inefficiency.
– The potential for external influence from Tehran and Washington could complicate internal dynamics.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The potential collapse of al-Sudani’s coalition could lead to political instability and governance challenges in Iraq. This instability may exacerbate existing economic issues and create openings for extremist groups to exploit. Additionally, the geopolitical balance between Tehran and Washington could be disrupted, affecting regional security dynamics.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Monitor coalition dynamics and potential defections closely to anticipate shifts in political power.
• Engage in diplomatic efforts to stabilize post-election negotiations and encourage inclusive governance.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Al-Sudani secures a second term, stabilizing governance and improving service delivery.
  • Worst Case: Coalition collapses, leading to political chaos and increased influence of extremist groups.
  • Most Likely: Al-Sudani wins the election but faces significant challenges in maintaining his position.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Mohammed Shia al-Sudani
– Faleh al-Fayyad
– Ahmed al-Asadi
– Nassif al-Khattabi
– Qais al-Khazali
– Mustafa al-Kadhimi

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, political instability, regional focus, coalition dynamics