Published on: 2025-09-30

Intelligence Report: Iraq’s Shoemakers Revive Their Ancient Craft – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The revival of Iraq’s shoemaking industry in Mosul, led by artisans like Saad Abdul Aal, represents a significant cultural and economic resurgence post-conflict. The most supported hypothesis is that this revival will contribute to local economic stability and cultural preservation, albeit with challenges from international competition. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Support initiatives that enhance local craftsmanship and market access.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The revival of the shoemaking industry in Mosul will lead to sustainable economic growth and cultural revitalization in the region.
– **Supporting Evidence:** The reopening of workshops, such as Saad Abdul Aal’s, with international support, indicates a positive trend towards economic recovery and cultural preservation.

Hypothesis 2: The revival efforts will face significant challenges from international competition and may not achieve long-term sustainability.
– **Supporting Evidence:** The presence of cheaper imported shoes poses a significant threat to the local industry, potentially undermining its economic viability.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions:** It is assumed that local craftsmanship will continue to be valued over cheaper imports. The role of international support is assumed to be consistent and effective.
– **Red Flags:** The reliance on external funding and support could be a vulnerability if such resources are withdrawn. The competitive edge of local craftsmanship over imports is assumed but not guaranteed.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The revival of the shoemaking industry could enhance local economic resilience and cultural identity, reducing the risk of social unrest. However, failure to compete with imports could lead to economic stagnation, increasing the risk of unemployment and instability. Geopolitically, a stable Mosul could contribute to broader regional stability.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Encourage partnerships between local artisans and international markets to enhance competitiveness.
• Invest in marketing campaigns that highlight the cultural and quality aspects of Iraqi craftsmanship.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: The industry thrives, leading to economic growth and cultural renaissance.
  • Worst Case: The industry collapses under international competition, leading to economic decline.
  • Most Likely: A mixed outcome where some artisans succeed while others struggle against imports.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Saad Abdul Aal: A key figure in the revival of the shoemaking industry in Mosul.
– International Organization for Migration (IOM): Provides crucial support for local enterprises.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, economic resilience, cultural preservation, regional focus