Published on: 2025-03-29

Intelligence Report: Is Sudans war merging with South Sudanese conflicts – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The ongoing conflict in Sudan is increasingly intertwining with South Sudanese conflicts, primarily due to new alliances between key factions. The strategic collaboration between the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) poses a heightened risk of regional destabilization. This development could potentially escalate into a broader regional conflict, drawing in neighboring South Sudan. Immediate attention is required to address these alliances and mitigate the risk of a wider conflict.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The alliance between the SPLM and RSF marks a significant shift in the dynamics of the Sudanese conflict. The RSF’s strategic movements, including their capture of West Kordofan and attempts to expand influence in central and eastern Sudan, indicate a calculated effort to increase operational reach. The SPLM, led by Abdel Aziz Al Hilu, has historically opposed Sudan’s army, and their collaboration with the RSF suggests a tactical alignment to counter the Sudanese military’s strategies. This alliance could potentially enable the RSF to access new supply routes through South Sudan and Ethiopia, complicating the Sudanese army’s containment efforts.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The merging of Sudan’s war with South Sudanese conflicts presents several strategic risks:

• Increased likelihood of a regional conflict involving South Sudan and potentially Ethiopia.
• Destabilization of the already fragile peace process in South Sudan.
• Potential for humanitarian crises due to displacement and increased violence in border regions.
• Economic disruptions affecting trade and resource distribution across the region.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to mediate between conflicting parties and prevent further escalation.
• Strengthen regional cooperation to monitor and control arms smuggling and support humanitarian aid distribution.
• Encourage international organizations to facilitate dialogue and provide peacekeeping support if necessary.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful diplomatic interventions lead to a de-escalation of tensions and a renewed focus on peace processes in both Sudan and South Sudan.

Worst-case scenario: The conflict escalates into a full-scale regional war, drawing in neighboring countries and resulting in significant humanitarian and economic crises.

Most likely scenario: Continued skirmishes and strategic maneuvers by both the SPLM and RSF, with intermittent international efforts to stabilize the situation.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations, including Abdel Aziz Al Hilu, Kholood Khair, and Alan Boswell. These individuals are pivotal in the ongoing developments and strategic decisions within the conflict.