Published on: 2025-10-23

Intelligence Report: Islamic Jihad vows to keep arms while upholding Gaza ceasefire – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that Islamic Jihad’s commitment to maintaining arms while upholding the ceasefire is a strategic posture aimed at preserving its influence and deterrence capabilities. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Monitor for shifts in regional alliances and prepare for potential ceasefire violations.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: Islamic Jihad is genuinely committed to the ceasefire but retains arms as a deterrent against perceived Israeli aggression. This stance is primarily defensive, aimed at maintaining leverage in future negotiations.

Hypothesis 2: Islamic Jihad’s statement is a strategic deception, intending to buy time to regroup and rearm, with the ultimate goal of resuming hostilities when conditions are favorable.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis 1 is better supported by the group’s public statements and historical patterns of behavior, which suggest a preference for maintaining a balance of power rather than escalating conflict unilaterally.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions for Hypothesis 1 include the belief that Islamic Jihad values regional stability and that external pressures (e.g., from Iran) do not override its strategic autonomy. A red flag is the lack of independent verification of Islamic Jihad’s internal decision-making processes.

For Hypothesis 2, the assumption is that Islamic Jihad prioritizes military objectives over political agreements. A potential cognitive bias is overestimating the group’s willingness to risk international condemnation by breaking the ceasefire.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

If Hypothesis 1 holds, the primary risk is miscalculation leading to unintended escalation. Economic and geopolitical stability in the region could be maintained if the ceasefire holds. However, if Hypothesis 2 is correct, there is a risk of renewed conflict, which could destabilize the region and draw in external actors, exacerbating geopolitical tensions.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance intelligence-sharing with regional partners to detect early signs of ceasefire violations.
• Engage in diplomatic efforts to reinforce the ceasefire and address underlying grievances.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Ceasefire holds, leading to broader peace negotiations.
  • Worst Case: Ceasefire collapses, leading to widespread conflict.
  • Most Likely: Periodic skirmishes occur, but ceasefire largely holds.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

Abu Hamza, Naji Maher Abu Saif, Islamic Jihad, Al Quds Brigades, Iran, Israel.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, counter-terrorism, regional focus