Published on: 2025-03-04

Intelligence Report: Israel Wants Russia Back in Syria America Shouldn’t Help – The National Interest

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The strategic landscape in Syria is complex, with Israel advocating for Russia’s return to counterbalance Iranian influence, while the United States is advised against supporting this move. The potential empowerment of Islamist factions like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) poses significant risks to regional stability and U.S. interests. The situation requires careful navigation to avoid unintended consequences such as the rise of extremist regimes and increased regional tensions.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Israel’s military capabilities and strategic alliances.
Weaknesses: Potential overextension of military resources.
Opportunities: Strengthening regional alliances against common threats.
Threats: Empowerment of extremist groups and regional instability.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The potential return of Russia to Syria could stabilize the Assad regime but may also embolden Iranian influence, affecting neighboring countries like Turkey and Israel. The U.S. support for HTS could inadvertently strengthen al-Qaeda offshoots, impacting regional security.

Scenario Generation

Scenario 1: Russia returns, stabilizing Assad but increasing Iranian influence.
Scenario 2: U.S. support for HTS leads to a power vacuum, empowering extremist groups.
Scenario 3: A new regional alliance forms to counterbalance Iranian and Russian influence.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The empowerment of HTS and similar groups poses a risk of creating an Afghanistan-like regime in the Eastern Mediterranean. This could destabilize the region, threatening U.S. allies and interests. The potential for direct conflict between Turkey and Israel, exacerbated by Turkish support for HTS, presents a significant risk to regional stability.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance diplomatic efforts to mediate between regional powers and prevent the empowerment of extremist groups.
• Strengthen intelligence-sharing with allies to monitor and counteract extremist threats.
• Consider technological advancements in defense systems to protect against potential threats.

Outlook:

Best-case: Stabilization of the Assad regime with reduced Iranian influence, leading to regional stability.
Worst-case: Empowerment of extremist groups and increased regional conflict.
Most likely: Continued instability with periodic escalations in conflict.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations, including Ahmed al Sharaa, Abu Mohammed al Jolani, and regional entities like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Israeli Air Force. These actors play pivotal roles in shaping the regional dynamics and potential outcomes.