Published on: 2025-06-03

Intelligence Report: Israeli Public Is Increasingly Skeptical About Lasting Peace – Pew Research Center

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Pew Research Center survey reveals a growing skepticism among Israelis regarding the prospects for lasting peace with Palestinians. Key findings indicate that a majority of Israelis doubt the feasibility of a two-state solution and express concerns over the commitment of both Israeli and Palestinian leadership to peace efforts. The survey highlights significant obstacles such as the status of Jerusalem, Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and the influence of international actors, with the United States viewed as a notable exception in its perceived helpfulness. Recommendations focus on addressing these obstacles and enhancing diplomatic efforts.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

ACH 2.0

Reconstructing intentions reveals that skepticism is driven by historical conflicts and recent hostilities, influencing public opinion against the likelihood of peaceful coexistence.

Indicators Development

Monitoring shifts in public sentiment and leadership rhetoric can provide early warnings of potential escalations or peace opportunities.

Narrative Pattern Analysis

Analyzing narratives from both Israeli and Palestinian perspectives shows entrenched positions on key issues like territorial claims and governance, complicating peace negotiations.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The prevailing skepticism poses risks to regional stability, potentially escalating tensions and hindering diplomatic efforts. The lack of trust between parties and the influence of external actors could exacerbate existing conflicts, impacting political and economic stability. The persistent settlement activity and unresolved status of Jerusalem remain flashpoints for future conflicts.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance diplomatic engagement focused on confidence-building measures between Israeli and Palestinian leaders.
• Encourage international mediation efforts, particularly by actors perceived as neutral, to facilitate dialogue.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Renewed peace talks leading to incremental agreements on contentious issues.
  • Worst Case: Escalation of hostilities resulting in regional instability.
  • Most Likely: Continued stalemate with sporadic violence and diplomatic efforts.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Mahmoud Abbas, Donald Trump

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional stability, peace negotiations, international diplomacy