Published on: 2025-03-18

Intelligence Report: Israels Ben-Gvir to rejoin Netanyahus government – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Itamar Ben-Gvir is set to rejoin Benjamin Netanyahu’s government following a temporary resignation over disagreements related to a ceasefire in Gaza. This move is expected to strengthen the coalition government, which had been weakened by Ben-Gvir’s departure. The rejoining comes amidst renewed Israeli military actions in Gaza, following a breakdown in the ceasefire agreement with Hamas.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The rejoining of Itamar Ben-Gvir to the coalition government signals a potential shift towards more hardline policies in response to the ongoing conflict in Gaza. The initial resignation was a protest against the ceasefire, indicating a preference for more aggressive military action. The recent Israeli strikes in Gaza, following Hamas’s refusal to release captives, suggest a continuation of this strategy.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The rejoining of Ben-Gvir could lead to increased military actions in Gaza, escalating tensions in the region. This poses risks to regional stability and could impact international relations, particularly with countries advocating for a peaceful resolution. The humanitarian situation in Gaza may worsen, with potential repercussions for Israel’s international standing and security.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage diplomatic efforts to re-establish a ceasefire and address humanitarian needs in Gaza.
• Consider enhancing intelligence operations to better anticipate and mitigate security threats.
• Explore technological advancements to improve defense capabilities and minimize civilian casualties.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful diplomatic interventions lead to a renewed ceasefire, reducing hostilities and stabilizing the region.

Worst-case scenario: Continued military escalation results in significant casualties and further destabilizes the region, drawing in international actors.

Most likely scenario: Ongoing skirmishes with intermittent ceasefires, maintaining a volatile status quo with periodic escalations.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations, including Itamar Ben-Gvir, Benjamin Netanyahu, Otzma Yehudit, Likud, Hamas, and the Israeli military.