Just 1 of coastal waters could power a third of the worlds electricity but can we do it in time – The Conversation Africa


Published on: 2025-10-24

Intelligence Report: Just 1 of coastal waters could power a third of the world’s electricity but can we do it in time – The Conversation Africa

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The potential of coastal waters to significantly contribute to global electricity needs is promising but faces substantial technical, economic, and political hurdles. The hypothesis that offshore renewable energy can be rapidly scaled to meet global electricity demands is less supported due to current technological and infrastructural limitations. Confidence Level: Moderate. Recommended Action: Prioritize investment in technological advancements and policy frameworks to overcome identified barriers.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: Offshore renewable energy can be scaled effectively to meet a significant portion of global electricity needs within the next few decades.

Hypothesis 2: Technological, economic, and political challenges will prevent offshore renewable energy from being scaled effectively in the near term.

Using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) 2.0, Hypothesis 2 is better supported. The current technological readiness levels, economic costs, and political hurdles suggest significant barriers to rapid expansion.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions:
– Technological advancements will continue at the current pace.
– Political and economic support will align with renewable energy goals.

Red Flags:
– Overestimation of technological readiness and underestimation of political resistance.
– Lack of data on long-term environmental impacts of large-scale offshore installations.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The inability to scale offshore renewable energy could delay global decarbonization efforts, increasing reliance on fossil fuels. Economic risks include potential investment losses in unproven technologies. Geopolitical tensions may arise over maritime space allocation and environmental concerns.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

  • Invest in research and development to advance floating turbine and offshore solar technologies.
  • Develop international frameworks to streamline permitting processes and address geopolitical concerns.
  • Best Case Scenario: Technological breakthroughs and political alignment lead to rapid scaling of offshore renewables.
  • Worst Case Scenario: Technological stagnation and political resistance halt progress, prolonging fossil fuel dependency.
  • Most Likely Scenario: Gradual progress with intermittent setbacks due to technological and political challenges.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Singapore and China-based scientists leading the study.
– International Energy Agency (IEA) for technology readiness assessments.

7. Thematic Tags

renewable energy, technological innovation, geopolitical strategy, environmental policy

Just 1 of coastal waters could power a third of the worlds electricity but can we do it in time - The Conversation Africa - Image 1

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