Published on: 2025-03-21

Intelligence Report: Kenyas handshake politics Elite self-preservation disguised as compromise – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The recent political maneuvering in Kenya, characterized by a memorandum of understanding between Raila and Ruto’s parties, exemplifies a long-standing tradition of elite self-preservation disguised as compromise. This strategy, known as the “handshake,” allows political adversaries to share power and resources, thereby maintaining the status quo and preventing significant political reform. The handshake tactic has historically been used to quell political dissent and avoid violence, but it also perpetuates a rigid political caste system. Immediate attention is required to address the potential for increased public dissatisfaction and unrest.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The handshake politics in Kenya is a strategic tool employed by political elites to maintain power and control. Historically, it has been used to resolve post-election violence and disputes, as seen in the agreements involving Raila and Uhuru, and previously with Moi and Kibaki. The recent agreement between Raila’s ODM party and Ruto’s UDA party is perceived as a continuation of this tradition. The handshake serves as a mechanism to prevent political upheaval by integrating opposition forces into the government, thus neutralizing potential threats to the political elite’s dominance.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The handshake politics pose several strategic risks, including:

• Entrenchment of a political elite that resists meaningful reform, potentially stifling democratic progress.
• Increased public dissatisfaction due to perceived manipulation and lack of genuine political change, which could lead to civil unrest.
• Economic instability as political agreements prioritize elite interests over national economic development.

The continuation of handshake politics may undermine regional stability by setting a precedent for similar tactics in neighboring countries, potentially leading to a cycle of elite-driven governance and public disillusionment.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage transparency in political agreements to build public trust and ensure accountability.
• Promote inclusive political dialogue that involves diverse stakeholders, including civil society and grassroots movements.
• Support initiatives that foster political reform and reduce the influence of entrenched elites.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: The handshake leads to a period of political stability and gradual reform, with increased public participation in governance.
Worst-case scenario: Public dissatisfaction escalates into widespread protests and violence, destabilizing the political landscape.
Most likely scenario: The political elite maintains control through periodic handshakes, with limited reform and ongoing public discontent.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Raila, Ruto, Uhuru, Moi, and Kibaki. These individuals have played pivotal roles in shaping Kenya’s political landscape through handshake agreements. Their actions continue to influence the country’s political dynamics and future developments.