Published on: 2025-03-03

Intelligence Report: Kremlin ‘Trying to Sabotage’ Trump-Zelensky Deal ISW – Newsweek

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Kremlin is reportedly attempting to undermine a proposed rare earth mineral deal between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky, as assessed by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This deal is crucial for Ukraine’s economic stability and territorial integrity. The Kremlin’s actions could have long-term ramifications on Ukraine’s economy and its geopolitical relationships, particularly with the United States.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: The deal promises significant economic benefits and strengthens Ukraine’s sovereignty through U.S. investment.
Weaknesses: Political instability and skepticism about the deal’s terms could hinder progress.
Opportunities: Enhanced U.S.-Ukraine relations and economic growth through rare earth mineral exploitation.
Threats: Russian interference and potential geopolitical tensions.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The proposed deal could influence regional dynamics by shifting economic power and alliances. Russian opposition may lead to increased tensions not only with Ukraine but also with Western nations, potentially affecting regional security and economic policies.

Scenario Generation

Best-case scenario: Successful deal implementation leads to economic growth and strengthened U.S.-Ukraine relations.
Worst-case scenario: Russian sabotage efforts succeed, causing economic setbacks and strained international relations.
Most likely scenario: Ongoing negotiations with intermittent Russian interference, leading to a delayed but eventual agreement.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The strategic risks include potential economic destabilization of Ukraine, increased geopolitical tensions, and the possibility of a protracted conflict with Russia. The deal’s failure could hinder Ukraine’s economic recovery and weaken its negotiating position in peace talks.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance diplomatic efforts to secure international support for the deal and counter Russian narratives.
• Invest in security measures to protect the integrity of the negotiations and the deal’s implementation.
• Encourage transparency and communication between involved parties to build trust and mitigate skepticism.

Outlook:

Best-case: The deal is finalized, leading to economic growth and improved U.S.-Ukraine relations.
Worst-case: Russian interference leads to the deal’s collapse, causing economic and political instability.
Most likely: Prolonged negotiations with eventual agreement, albeit with concessions and delays.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky, Dmitry Peskov, and Vladimir Putin. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Kremlin are also key entities involved in this context.