Published on: 2025-10-20

Intelligence Report: Kushner and Witkoff reveal how the Trump admin plans to disarm Hamas amid faltering peace deal – New York Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The strategic judgment indicates a moderate confidence level that the Trump administration’s plan to disarm Hamas through diplomatic and economic means is unlikely to succeed without significant international support and cooperation from regional actors. The most supported hypothesis suggests that while the initiative may temporarily weaken Hamas, it will not achieve long-term disarmament or stability in Gaza. Recommended action includes bolstering international diplomatic efforts and preparing contingency plans for potential escalation.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A:** The Trump administration’s plan to disarm Hamas through diplomatic engagement and economic incentives will succeed, leading to a stable and peaceful Gaza.
2. **Hypothesis B:** The plan will face significant challenges and ultimately fail to disarm Hamas, resulting in continued instability and potential escalation of violence in the region.

Using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) 2.0, Hypothesis B is better supported due to historical precedents of failed peace initiatives in the region, Hamas’s resistance to disarmament, and the complexity of establishing a viable interim government in Gaza.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions:** The plan assumes that economic incentives and international support will be sufficient to persuade Hamas to disarm. It also assumes that a transparent interim government can be established quickly.
– **Red Flags:** The lack of commitment from Hamas to disarm, potential underestimation of the group’s resilience, and the absence of a clear enforcement mechanism for the peace deal.
– **Blind Spots:** The potential for regional actors, such as Iran, to undermine the initiative and the impact of internal Palestinian politics on the plan’s success.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Patterns:** Historical patterns indicate that similar peace initiatives have struggled due to entrenched political and ideological divides.
– **Cascading Threats:** Failure to disarm Hamas could lead to renewed violence, destabilizing the region further and potentially drawing in neighboring countries.
– **Potential Escalation:** If the plan fails, there is a risk of increased military engagement between Israel and Hamas, with broader regional implications.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance diplomatic efforts by engaging key regional players, including Egypt and Jordan, to support the disarmament initiative.
• Develop contingency plans for potential escalation, including humanitarian aid strategies and military readiness.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • **Best Case:** Successful disarmament and establishment of a stable interim government lead to long-term peace.
  • **Worst Case:** Failure of the initiative results in intensified conflict and regional destabilization.
  • **Most Likely:** Partial success with temporary reduction in violence but ongoing instability in Gaza.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Jared Kushner
– Steve Witkoff
– Hamas leadership
– Israeli Defense Forces (IDF)

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, counter-terrorism, regional focus, Middle East peace process