Published on: 2026-01-08

AI-powered OSINT brief from verified open sources. Automated NLP signal extraction with human verification. See our Methodology and Why WorldWideWatchers.

Intelligence Report: Lebanese army says it completed its first phase of Hezbollah disarmament

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Lebanese Armed Forces have completed the first phase of a disarmament plan targeting Hezbollah, aiming to extend state authority in southern Lebanon. Despite this progress, Hezbollah’s rearmament efforts, supported by Iran, continue, posing ongoing challenges to regional stability. The overall confidence in this assessment is moderate, given the complexities and uncertainties involved.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The Lebanese Armed Forces’ initiative will successfully disarm Hezbollah in the long term, reducing its influence and stabilizing the region. This is supported by the completion of the first phase and international backing, but contradicted by Hezbollah’s continued rearmament and Iran’s support.
• Hypothesis B: Hezbollah will maintain its military capabilities despite disarmament efforts, due to continued Iranian support and strategic interests in the region. This is supported by reports of ongoing rearmament and existing military infrastructure, but contradicted by the Lebanese army’s progress and international pressure.
• Assessment: Hypothesis B is currently better supported due to the persistent rearmament activities and Iran’s involvement. Key indicators that could shift this judgment include increased Lebanese military effectiveness or significant international intervention.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The Lebanese army has the capacity and political support to implement the disarmament plan; Hezbollah’s rearmament is primarily supported by Iran; international stakeholders will continue to pressure for disarmament.
• Information Gaps: Detailed intelligence on the scale and scope of Hezbollah’s current military capabilities; the extent of Iranian logistical and financial support to Hezbollah.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in Lebanese and Israeli statements due to national interests; risk of Hezbollah misinformation campaigns to downplay their capabilities or intentions.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The disarmament initiative could lead to shifts in regional power dynamics, affecting political alliances and security conditions. The outcome will significantly influence Lebanon’s internal stability and its relations with neighboring countries.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential for increased tensions between Lebanon and Iran; shifts in Lebanese political power dynamics if Hezbollah is weakened.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Changes in Hezbollah’s operational capabilities could alter threat levels for Israel and other regional actors.
• Cyber / Information Space: Possible increase in cyber operations or propaganda efforts by Hezbollah to counter disarmament narratives.
• Economic / Social: Economic instability may arise from increased military focus and potential conflict, affecting social cohesion in Lebanon.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Enhance intelligence collection on Hezbollah’s rearmament; engage diplomatically with key regional stakeholders to support disarmament efforts.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Strengthen Lebanese military capabilities through international partnerships; monitor Iranian activities in Lebanon closely.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best Case: Successful disarmament leading to regional stability and reduced Hezbollah influence.
  • Worst Case: Escalation of conflict due to Hezbollah’s resistance and increased Iranian support.
  • Most Likely: Continued partial disarmament with ongoing Hezbollah influence and rearmament efforts.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Gen. Rodolphe Haykal, Lebanese Armed Forces Commander
• Nawaf Salam, Lebanese Prime Minister
• Hezbollah
• Iranian Government
• Israeli Government
• U.S. Government

7. Thematic Tags

Counter-Terrorism, disarmament, Hezbollah, Iran influence, regional stability, Lebanese Armed Forces, Israeli security

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• ACH 2.0: Reconstruct likely threat actor intentions via hypothesis testing and structured refutation.
• Indicators Development: Track radicalization signals and propaganda patterns to anticipate operational planning.
• Narrative Pattern Analysis: Analyze spread/adaptation of ideological narratives for recruitment/incitement signals.

Explore more:
Counter-Terrorism Briefs ·
Daily Summary ·
Support us