Published on: 2025-04-13

Intelligence Report: Lebanese Army takes control of most Hezbollah bases in south Lebanon – The Jerusalem Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Lebanese Army has successfully taken control of the majority of Hezbollah’s military sites in southern Lebanon, as well as begun operations north of the Litani River. This development follows a ceasefire agreement mandating only the Lebanese Army and UN forces in the region. The transition has been peaceful, with no reported clashes. This shift marks a significant step towards reducing Hezbollah’s military influence and restoring state control, aligning with ongoing efforts to stabilize the region.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The Lebanese Army’s takeover of Hezbollah’s military sites is a strategic maneuver aimed at consolidating state control and reducing non-state military influence. This move is in compliance with international agreements and reflects a broader regional strategy to stabilize southern Lebanon. The peaceful handover indicates a cooperative approach between Hezbollah and the Lebanese state, potentially setting a precedent for future disarmament efforts. The involvement of key political figures underscores the domestic political consensus on this issue.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The transition of military control poses several implications and risks:

• National Security: Enhanced state control may deter external aggression and reduce internal conflict risks.
• Regional Stability: A peaceful handover could contribute to broader regional stability, reducing tensions with neighboring countries.
• Economic Interests: Stabilization efforts may improve investor confidence and economic prospects in Lebanon.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage continued diplomatic engagement to ensure the complete and peaceful transition of military sites.
• Support initiatives aimed at integrating former Hezbollah members into civilian roles to prevent potential unrest.
• Enhance intelligence-sharing mechanisms with international partners to monitor compliance and regional developments.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Full disarmament of Hezbollah and integration into the political process, leading to long-term stability.

Worst-case scenario: Breakdown of agreements leading to renewed conflict and regional instability.

Most likely outcome: Gradual transition with ongoing diplomatic efforts to ensure compliance and stability.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations:

• Joseph Aoun
• Samy Gemayel
• Samir Geagea
• Hezbollah
• Lebanese Army