Published on: 2026-02-13

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Intelligence Report: Logistics during wartime is a matter of national security and defense capability Oleksii Kuleba

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The logistics infrastructure in Ukraine is under systematic attack by Russian forces, significantly impacting national security and defense capabilities. The Ukrainian government is actively working to maintain and develop this sector despite ongoing challenges. The most likely hypothesis is that Russia aims to cripple Ukraine’s logistical capabilities to weaken its defense and economic stability. This assessment is made with moderate confidence due to ongoing hostilities and limited access to complete data.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian logistics infrastructure are primarily intended to degrade Ukraine’s military and economic capabilities. This is supported by the systematic targeting of ports, railways, and roads, which are critical for military logistics and economic operations. However, the full extent of damage and its impact on Ukraine’s overall war effort remains uncertain.
• Hypothesis B: The attacks are part of a broader strategy to create psychological pressure on the Ukrainian population and government by disrupting civilian life and economic activities. While this hypothesis is plausible, there is less direct evidence linking the attacks specifically to psychological operations as opposed to military objectives.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the strategic importance of logistics in warfare and the direct impact on Ukraine’s defense capabilities. Key indicators that could shift this judgment include changes in attack patterns or explicit statements from Russian officials.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The Ukrainian logistics infrastructure is crucial for both military and economic operations; Russia has the capability and intent to disrupt these operations; Ukraine’s efforts to restore and develop logistics are ongoing and partially effective.
• Information Gaps: Detailed assessments of the operational status of specific logistics facilities and the full impact on military operations are lacking.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential for cognitive bias in interpreting the strategic intent behind Russian attacks; risk of source bias in Ukrainian government reports emphasizing resilience and recovery.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing attacks on logistics infrastructure could lead to prolonged disruptions in military and civilian supply chains, impacting Ukraine’s war effort and economic stability. Over time, this may necessitate increased international support and adaptation of logistical strategies.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential for escalation if attacks are perceived as targeting international aid or personnel.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Increased vulnerability to further attacks and potential exploitation by non-state actors.
• Cyber / Information Space: Risk of cyber-attacks on logistics management systems, exacerbating physical infrastructure challenges.
• Economic / Social: Disruption of trade routes and economic activities could lead to social unrest and decreased public morale.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Enhance monitoring of logistics infrastructure, increase protective measures, and seek international technical and financial support for rapid repairs.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures, including alternative logistics routes and partnerships with neighboring countries to secure supply chains.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best Case: Successful defense and repair of logistics infrastructure, maintaining supply chain integrity.
  • Worst Case: Continued degradation of logistics capabilities leading to significant military and economic setbacks.
  • Most Likely: Ongoing challenges with intermittent successes in infrastructure repair and adaptation.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Oleksii Kuleba – Deputy Prime Minister for Restoration of Ukraine
• Serhii Derkach – Deputy Minister for Communities and Territories Development
• Andrii Kashuba – Deputy Minister for Communities and Territories Development
• Oleksii Balesta – Deputy Minister for Communities and Territories Development
• Ukrzaliznytsia – Ukrainian Railways

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, national security, logistics, infrastructure attacks, Ukraine conflict, economic stability, military logistics, geopolitical risks

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Cognitive Bias Stress Test: Expose and correct potential biases in assessments through red-teaming and structured challenge.
• Bayesian Scenario Modeling: Use probabilistic forecasting for conflict trajectories or escalation likelihood.
• Network Influence Mapping: Map relationships between state and non-state actors for impact estimation.

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