Published on: 2025-06-20

Intelligence Report: Long after the guns fall silent conflict-related sexual violence leaves lasting scars – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) remains a pervasive issue with enduring impacts on survivors and communities. Despite international recognition of CRSV as a war crime, its prevalence is likely underreported. The trauma and stigma associated with CRSV hinder societal cohesion and peacebuilding efforts. Immediate action is required to enhance support services, ensure accountability, and prevent future occurrences.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

At the surface level, CRSV is used as a deliberate tactic in conflicts to terrorize and control populations. Systemically, inadequate legal frameworks and societal norms perpetuate impunity and stigma. Worldviews that devalue women exacerbate these issues, while myths of invulnerability and silence perpetuate cycles of violence.

Cross-Impact Simulation

The prevalence of CRSV can destabilize neighboring regions by increasing refugee flows and straining resources. Economic dependencies on affected regions may suffer as societal disruptions impede development and recovery.

Scenario Generation

Under best-case scenarios, increased international pressure and funding lead to improved support systems and legal reforms. Worst-case scenarios involve further funding cuts and rising impunity, exacerbating trauma and societal fragmentation. Most likely, gradual progress will occur with intermittent setbacks.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

CRSV poses significant risks to political stability and social cohesion. The trauma can lead to long-term psychological and economic impacts, hindering recovery and development. The lack of accountability and support services increases the risk of recurring violence and societal division.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance international collaboration to improve legal frameworks and accountability mechanisms for CRSV.
• Increase funding for survivor support services, focusing on education, healthcare, and economic empowerment.
• Implement community-based interventions to address stigma and promote healing.
• Scenario-based projections suggest that proactive measures could lead to significant improvements in survivor outcomes and societal resilience.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

António Guterres, Esmralda Alabre, Pascale Solage, Pramila Patten

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, human rights, conflict resolution, gender-based violence