Published on: 2025-06-11

Intelligence Report: Meeting of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS Small Group – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The recent meeting of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS Small Group in Madrid emphasized the importance of a coordinated international effort to counter ISIS and its affiliates. Key outcomes include the establishment of a new working group on terrorist travel, the inclusion of Uzbekistan as a coalition member, and a renewed focus on countering ISIS activities in Sub-Saharan Africa. Recommendations focus on enhancing border security, disrupting financial networks, and leveraging technology to counter radicalization.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

ACH 2.0

Analysis suggests ISIS aims to exploit regional instability and digital platforms to sustain its operations. The coalition’s focus on disrupting travel and financial networks is crucial to counter these intentions.

Indicators Development

Key indicators include increased digital propaganda and shifts in travel patterns, which may signal upcoming operational activities.

Narrative Pattern Analysis

ISIS continues to adapt its ideological narratives to recruit and incite violence, particularly targeting diaspora communities.

Network Influence Mapping

Mapping reveals significant influence relationships between ISIS affiliates and local insurgent groups, highlighting the need for targeted countermeasures.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The coalition’s efforts to counter ISIS face challenges such as regional instability, cyber vulnerabilities, and the potential for ISIS to exploit economic hardships. There is a risk of ISIS affiliates gaining strength in under-governed regions, potentially leading to increased attacks and recruitment.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance intelligence sharing and coordination among coalition members to disrupt ISIS financial and travel networks.
• Invest in cybersecurity measures to counter digital radicalization and propaganda.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best case: Successful disruption of ISIS networks leads to a significant reduction in attacks.
  • Worst case: ISIS exploits regional conflicts, increasing its influence and operational capabilities.
  • Most likely: Continued coalition efforts contain ISIS but require sustained commitment and adaptation to emerging threats.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Diego Martínez, Alberto Ucelay, Gregory Logerfo

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus