Memo to Trump How Dumping 22 Million more Palestinians on Jordan would Destabilize the Middle East even More than the Iraq War Did – Juancole.com

Published on: 2025-01-28

Title of Analysis: Potential Destabilization of the Middle East Due to Proposed Population Transfer to Jordan

⚠️ Summary
The proposed relocation of 22 million Palestinians from Gaza to Jordan, as suggested by Israeli right-wing factions and reportedly supported by former U.S. President Donald Trump, poses significant geopolitical risks. This initiative, if executed, could destabilize the Middle East more severely than the Iraq War. The plan contravenes international law, including the Fourth Geneva Convention and the Rome Statute, and risks igniting widespread unrest in Jordan, a nation already grappling with economic challenges and a delicate demographic balance.

🔍 Detailed Analysis
The proposal to ethnically cleanse Gaza by relocating its Palestinian population to Jordan has been met with international condemnation. The Israeli far-right sees this as a solution to ongoing conflicts, but it disregards the complex socio-political dynamics of the region. Jordan, with a GDP of approximately $45 billion and high unemployment rates, is ill-equipped to absorb such a massive influx of refugees. The country’s population already includes a significant number of Palestinian refugees, many of whom have contentious relationships with the ruling Hashemite monarchy.

The historical context reveals that Jordan has previously experienced civil unrest due to demographic tensions, notably during the Black September conflict in 1970. The addition of millions more Palestinians could exacerbate existing tensions, potentially leading to civil strife or even the overthrow of the Jordanian government. Such instability would have far-reaching implications, potentially affecting neighboring countries and altering the balance of power in the Middle East.

📊 Implications and Risks
The proposed population transfer poses several risks:
1. **Political Instability**: Jordan’s political landscape could be destabilized, threatening the Hashemite monarchy and potentially leading to a power vacuum.
2. **Economic Strain**: The Jordanian economy, already under pressure, could collapse under the weight of additional refugees, leading to increased poverty and unemployment.
3. **Regional Security**: Instability in Jordan could spill over into neighboring countries, exacerbating existing conflicts and creating new security challenges.
4. **International Relations**: The plan could strain Jordan’s relations with Israel and the United States, as well as with other Arab nations, potentially leading to a realignment of alliances.

🔮 Recommendations and Outlook
1. **Diplomatic Engagement**: Immediate diplomatic efforts are necessary to dissuade any attempts at forced population transfer. Engaging with international bodies such as the United Nations could help mediate and find alternative solutions.
2. **Economic Support for Jordan**: International aid and investment in Jordan’s economy could help stabilize the country and mitigate potential unrest.
3. **Monitoring and Intelligence Gathering**: Continuous monitoring of the situation is essential to anticipate and respond to any developments. Intelligence agencies should focus on gathering information on potential insurgent activities and shifts in regional alliances.
4. **Long-term Solutions**: Encourage dialogue between Israeli and Palestinian leaders to address the root causes of the conflict and work towards a sustainable peace agreement, reducing the need for drastic measures such as population transfers.

In conclusion, the proposed relocation of Palestinians to Jordan is fraught with risks that could destabilize the Middle East. A coordinated international response is crucial to prevent potential chaos and ensure regional stability.