Published on: 2025-02-28

Intelligence Report: Might Makes Right Matt Duss on Trump’s Foreign Policy Doctrine from Ukraine to Gaza – Democracy Now!

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The report examines the shifting dynamics of U.S. foreign policy under Donald Trump, focusing on relations with Ukraine and Russia. A key development is the potential agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine regarding access to rare earth minerals. This move could redefine U.S.-Ukraine relations but raises questions about security guarantees and geopolitical alignments. The report suggests monitoring the implications of this deal on U.S.-Russia relations and the broader geopolitical landscape.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Potential economic benefits from access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals; strengthened bilateral relations with Ukraine.

Weaknesses: Unclear security guarantees for Ukraine; potential backlash from European allies.

Opportunities: Enhanced technological capabilities; leverage in negotiations with Russia.

Threats: Escalation of tensions with Russia; destabilization of regional alliances.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The potential U.S.-Ukraine mineral agreement could influence:

• U.S.-Russia relations: Potential thawing or increased tension depending on Russia’s response.
• European Union dynamics: Possible rift with EU countries favoring a more cautious approach to Russia.
• Middle East policies: Shifts in focus could impact U.S. involvement in other regions, such as Gaza.

Scenario Generation

Best-case scenario: The U.S. secures a stable supply of rare earth minerals, enhancing technological advancements and economic growth, while maintaining balanced relations with Russia.

Worst-case scenario: The agreement leads to heightened tensions with Russia, resulting in regional instability and strained alliances.

Most likely scenario: Incremental improvements in U.S.-Ukraine relations with cautious progress on security guarantees, while managing complex relations with Russia.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The mineral agreement poses strategic risks, including potential escalation of U.S.-Russia tensions and challenges to NATO cohesion. Economic interests may be impacted by shifts in global mineral supply chains. National security concerns arise from the need to ensure reliable access to critical resources while managing geopolitical tensions.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to clarify security guarantees for Ukraine to prevent misinterpretations.
• Enhance collaboration with European allies to maintain a unified approach towards Russia.
• Invest in alternative sources of rare earth minerals to reduce dependency on geopolitical hotspots.

Outlook:

Best-case: Strengthened U.S.-Ukraine partnership with minimal disruption to U.S.-Russia relations.

Worst-case: Increased geopolitical tensions leading to regional instability and economic disruptions.

Most likely: Gradual progress in U.S.-Ukraine relations with ongoing diplomatic challenges in managing Russia.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations:

• Matt Duss
• Donald Trump
• Volodymyr Zelensky
• Amy Goodman
• Keir Starmer