Published on: 2025-03-17

Intelligence Report: Military chiefs to thrash out Ukraine peacekeeping proposal amid Russia war – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The proposal for a multinational peacekeeping force in Ukraine, amid ongoing conflict with Russia, faces significant challenges. Russia has rejected the idea, necessitating a maximalist approach for implementation. A meeting in the United Kingdom will discuss the scope and scale of a potential ceasefire enforcement mission. The initiative requires substantial international cooperation and resources, with implications for European security and NATO’s strategic posture.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The concept of a multinational peacekeeping force in Ukraine is met with resistance from Russia, which views it as a provocation. The force would require significant manpower and resources, including air, land, and sea transport, long-range fire capabilities, and advanced defense systems. European countries, along with non-EU nations such as Norway and Turkey, have expressed interest in contributing to the force. However, the success of this initiative hinges on overcoming logistical challenges and securing broad international consensus.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The establishment of a peacekeeping force in Ukraine poses several strategic risks. A failure to secure Russian consent could escalate tensions and lead to further conflict. The deployment of such a force may trigger NATO’s mutual defense clause if European casualties occur, potentially drawing NATO into direct confrontation with Russia. Additionally, the logistical and financial burden on contributing countries could strain resources and political will.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to secure Russian cooperation or at least neutrality regarding the peacekeeping initiative.
• Develop a comprehensive logistical plan to ensure the rapid deployment and sustainability of the peacekeeping force.
• Strengthen alliances and partnerships to share the financial and operational burden of the mission.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful diplomatic negotiations lead to a ceasefire and the establishment of a peacekeeping force with broad international support, stabilizing the region.

Worst-case scenario: The initiative fails to gain traction, leading to increased hostilities and potential NATO involvement.

Most likely outcome: Prolonged negotiations with partial implementation of peacekeeping measures, maintaining a fragile status quo.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Keir Starmer, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Sergey Lavrov, and Ben Hodge. Entities involved include the United States, European Union, NATO, and various non-EU countries expressing interest in the peacekeeping initiative.