Published on: 2025-04-12

Intelligence Report: Moscow won’t be able to afford troops in Ukraine past 2026 as Russian economy struggles experts – New York Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Russia’s ability to sustain military operations in Ukraine is projected to decline significantly by 2026 due to severe economic constraints. The depletion of its sovereign wealth fund and escalating costs associated with troop salaries and recruitment bonuses are key factors. The situation presents an opportunity for strategic negotiations to potentially end the conflict.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

Russia has expended approximately half of its $106 billion sovereign wealth fund, primarily used for military expenses. The current pace of military engagement, resulting in significant troop casualties, is unsustainable beyond 12 to 16 months. Inflation and economic pressures are exacerbating the financial strain, limiting Moscow’s capacity to maintain its military presence in Ukraine.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing economic challenges pose significant risks to Russia’s national security and regional stability. The inability to finance military operations may lead to a forced withdrawal or a shift in military strategy. This economic strain could also impact global markets, particularly in energy sectors, given Russia’s role as a major energy supplier.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Leverage Russia’s economic vulnerabilities to push for diplomatic resolutions and peace negotiations.
• Enhance military and economic support to Ukraine to strengthen its position in negotiations.
• Monitor global energy markets for potential disruptions and develop contingency plans.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Russia agrees to a negotiated settlement, leading to a cessation of hostilities and stabilization of the region.
Worst-case scenario: Economic collapse leads to internal instability within Russia, potentially escalating regional tensions.
Most likely scenario: Continued economic deterioration forces Russia to reduce military operations, opening avenues for diplomatic engagement.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as George Barros and Christina Harward, as well as entities like the Institute for the Study of War. These individuals and entities provide critical insights into the ongoing situation and potential future developments.