Published on: 2025-03-06

Intelligence Report: Myanmar childhoods upended by civil war – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The ongoing civil war in Myanmar has severely impacted the lives of children, leading to widespread displacement, trauma, and disruption of essential services such as education and healthcare. The conflict has resulted in nearly one million children lacking access to education, making them vulnerable to exploitation and recruitment by conflict actors. Immediate humanitarian intervention and strategic policy adjustments are necessary to address the escalating crisis and protect the future of Myanmar’s youth.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

Scenario Analysis

Potential future scenarios include prolonged conflict leading to further destabilization, or international intervention resulting in a ceasefire and gradual restoration of services. The likelihood of each scenario depends on regional and international diplomatic efforts.

Key Assumptions Check

The assumption that the conflict will remain localized is challenged by evidence of increasing regional instability and potential spillover effects. The resilience of local communities is also questioned given the prolonged nature of the conflict.

Indicators Development

Key indicators include the frequency of airstrikes, the number of internally displaced persons, and the availability of humanitarian aid. Monitoring these indicators will help assess the trajectory of the conflict and its impact on children.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The conflict poses significant risks to national security and regional stability. The disruption of education and healthcare services threatens the long-term economic development of Myanmar. Additionally, the psychological impact on children could lead to a generation struggling with trauma, affecting societal cohesion and future governance.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Increase humanitarian aid focused on education, healthcare, and mental health services for displaced children.
• Encourage diplomatic efforts to mediate a ceasefire and initiate peace talks.
• Implement programs to prevent child exploitation and recruitment by conflict actors.

Outlook:

In the best-case scenario, international intervention leads to a ceasefire and gradual restoration of services. The worst-case scenario involves prolonged conflict with increasing casualties and displacement. The most likely outcome is a continued stalemate with intermittent violence, requiring sustained humanitarian and diplomatic efforts.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Chit Zaw, Thazin Hlae, Khet Mar, Thoon, and Phu Pwint Wai. Organizations include UNICEF and Myanmar Free Mental Health Counseling Program. These individuals and entities play crucial roles in the ongoing humanitarian efforts and the broader context of the conflict.