Published on: 2025-04-16

Intelligence Report: Myanmar Earthquake Relief Hampered by Lack of Aid and Airstrikes

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The relief efforts in Myanmar following the 7.7 magnitude earthquake are severely hindered by ongoing military airstrikes and the lack of international aid reaching affected areas. The State Administration Council (SAC) controls aid distribution, complicating efforts due to the ongoing civil conflict. Immediate international intervention and strategic negotiations are necessary to facilitate effective relief and recovery operations.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied:

Scenario Analysis

Future scenarios include continued obstruction of aid leading to humanitarian crises, potential international intervention, or a negotiated ceasefire allowing aid flow. Each scenario presents varying degrees of threat to regional stability.

Key Assumptions Check

Assumptions that the SAC will allow unrestricted aid access are challenged by their historical control over major cities and ongoing military actions. The assumption that international pressure alone can resolve the crisis is also questioned.

Indicators Development

Indicators to monitor include changes in military activity, international diplomatic engagement, and the flow of aid into affected regions. Increased airstrikes or further obstruction of aid are critical indicators of escalating threats.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict and restricted aid access exacerbate humanitarian conditions, risking further destabilization of Myanmar. This situation poses threats to regional security, potentially leading to increased refugee flows and economic disruptions. The inability to address these issues may undermine international confidence in regional stability.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Encourage diplomatic efforts to negotiate a ceasefire that prioritizes humanitarian aid delivery.
• Increase international pressure on the SAC to allow unrestricted access to aid organizations.
• Develop contingency plans for regional humanitarian support in case of prolonged obstruction.
• Scenario-based projections suggest that without intervention, the humanitarian situation will deteriorate, potentially leading to broader regional instability.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Natty Tangmeesang, Khin Ohmar