Published on: 2025-08-05

Intelligence Report: Netanyahu believes occupying Gaza is the only way to save the hostages but it will also start bloodiest phase of the war yet experts warn – New York Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The strategic judgment indicates a high-risk scenario with a moderate confidence level. The hypothesis that the occupation of Gaza will lead to increased hostilities and insurgency is better supported. Recommended action includes exploring alternative diplomatic measures and preparing for potential insurgency escalation.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: Occupying Gaza is necessary to save hostages and will effectively weaken Hamas, leading to a long-term stabilization of the region.
2. **Hypothesis B**: Occupying Gaza will result in the bloodiest phase of the conflict, with increased insurgency and regional destabilization, without guaranteeing the safe rescue of hostages.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis B is more supported due to the historical context of insurgency in occupied territories and expert warnings about potential escalation.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**:
– Hypothesis A assumes that military occupation will lead to the successful rescue of hostages and the weakening of Hamas.
– Hypothesis B assumes that occupation will exacerbate hostilities and insurgency.
– **Red Flags**:
– Lack of detailed plans for post-occupation governance.
– Potential underestimation of Hamas’ resilience and local support.
– Absence of clear international support for occupation.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Patterns**: Historical insurgency patterns suggest increased violence and instability post-occupation.
– **Cascading Threats**: Potential for regional conflicts involving neighboring countries and non-state actors.
– **Economic Risks**: Prolonged conflict could strain Israel’s economy and international relations.
– **Psychological Impact**: Increased civilian casualties and humanitarian crises could erode public support.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Explore diplomatic channels to negotiate hostage release.
• Prepare for insurgency by strengthening intelligence and counter-insurgency capabilities.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful negotiation leads to hostage release without occupation.
  • Worst Case: Occupation leads to prolonged insurgency and regional conflict.
  • Most Likely: Initial occupation followed by increased insurgency and international pressure for withdrawal.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Benjamin Netanyahu
– Colin Clarke
– Christopher Oleary
– Mona Yacoubian
– Yoram Cohen

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, counter-terrorism, regional focus, insurgency dynamics