Published on: 2025-02-26

Intelligence Report: New Ghostwriter Campaign Targets Ukrainian Government and Opposition Activists in Belarus – Securityaffairs.com

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

A new Ghostwriter campaign has been identified, targeting Ukrainian government entities and Belarusian opposition activists. The campaign, active since late August, employs sophisticated techniques, including weaponized Microsoft Excel documents, to compromise targets. The threat actor, known as Ghostwriter, is linked to interests aligned with Belarus and Russia. Immediate attention is required to mitigate potential impacts on national security and regional stability.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)

The campaign’s motivations likely include destabilizing opposition movements in Belarus and undermining Ukrainian government operations. The alignment with Belarusian and Russian interests suggests geopolitical objectives.

SWOT Analysis

• Strengths: Advanced obfuscation techniques and use of legitimate software tools enhance evasion.
• Weaknesses: Reliance on phishing emails may limit initial access vectors.
• Opportunities: Increased vigilance and international cooperation could disrupt operations.
• Threats: Continued evolution of tactics could lead to broader regional impacts.

Indicators Development

Indicators of emerging threats include increased phishing activity, use of specific malware variants like PicassoLoader, and targeting patterns consistent with Ghostwriter operations.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The campaign poses significant risks to national security, with potential impacts on regional stability and economic interests. The alignment with Belarusian and Russian interests could exacerbate tensions in Eastern Europe, potentially affecting NATO relations and cybersecurity postures.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance cybersecurity awareness and training to mitigate phishing risks.
• Implement advanced threat detection systems to identify and neutralize malicious activities.
• Foster international collaboration to share intelligence and coordinate responses.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Effective countermeasures reduce the campaign’s impact, leading to improved regional stability.
Worst-case scenario: Escalation of cyber operations results in significant geopolitical tensions and economic disruptions.
Most likely scenario: Continued low-level cyber operations with periodic escalations, requiring ongoing vigilance and adaptive strategies.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations:

• Vladimir Nikiforech
• SentinelLab
• FireEye
• Securityaffairs.com
• Ghostwriter