Published on: 2025-04-04

Intelligence Report: New Southeast Asia Survey Shows Greater Trust in the US Than China This Year but There’s a Catch – Time

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The latest survey conducted by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute reveals a shift in trust among Southeast Asian countries, with a greater inclination towards the US over China. However, the results indicate volatility and mixed sentiments, suggesting a complex geopolitical landscape. Key recommendations include strengthening diplomatic ties and monitoring regional shifts in alignment.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The survey results show that while trust in the US has increased, there is still a significant level of distrust towards China. Notably, countries such as the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam exhibit higher trust in the US. In contrast, countries like Cambodia and Myanmar show a preference for China. This indicates a strategic balancing act by ASEAN countries amidst the US-China rivalry.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The survey highlights potential risks to regional stability as Southeast Asian countries navigate their foreign policy between two major powers. The economic and military influence of China remains a concern, with implications for national security and sovereignty. The ongoing US-China trade tensions further complicate the economic landscape, potentially affecting regional supply chains and economic growth.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance diplomatic engagement with Southeast Asian nations to solidify trust and counterbalance China’s influence.
• Encourage regional economic partnerships to reduce dependency on Chinese markets.
• Monitor geopolitical shifts and prepare for potential economic disruptions due to US-China tensions.

Outlook:

In the best-case scenario, Southeast Asian countries will maintain a balanced approach, leveraging relationships with both the US and China for economic and security benefits. In the worst-case scenario, increased tensions could lead to regional instability and economic downturns. The most likely outcome is a continued strategic balancing, with countries cautiously navigating their foreign policies amidst US-China competition.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report references Donald Trump, Ja Ian Chong, and Sharon Seah. These individuals provide insights into the geopolitical dynamics and potential policy directions. The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute is the primary organization conducting the survey, offering valuable data on regional sentiments.