Published on: 2025-03-06

Intelligence Report: Nigeria ranks sixth in global terrorism index 565 killed in 2024 – The Punch

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Nigeria has moved to the sixth position in the global terrorism index, with 565 fatalities recorded in 2024. This marks an increase in terrorism-related deaths within the country, despite a global decline in such fatalities. The Sahel region, particularly the Liptako-Gourma area, remains a significant hotspot for terrorist activities. The report underscores the fragility of counterterrorism progress in the region, with Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger experiencing increased terrorist activities. Strategic recommendations focus on enhancing regional cooperation and strengthening counterterrorism measures.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Regional cooperation initiatives and international support for counterterrorism efforts.

Weaknesses: Limited resources and infrastructure to effectively combat terrorism.

Opportunities: Potential for increased international aid and technological advancements in surveillance.

Threats: Expanding terrorist networks and cross-border insurgency activities.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The rise in terrorism in Nigeria and neighboring Sahel countries could lead to increased regional instability, affecting economic activities and humanitarian conditions. Conversely, successful counterterrorism efforts in one country may positively influence neighboring regions.

Scenario Generation

Best-Case Scenario: Enhanced regional collaboration leads to a significant reduction in terrorist activities.

Worst-Case Scenario: Escalation of terrorist attacks results in widespread regional instability.

Most Likely Scenario: Continued sporadic terrorist activities with gradual improvements in counterterrorism capabilities.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The increase in terrorism-related deaths in Nigeria poses significant risks to national security and regional stability. The economic impact includes potential disruptions to trade and investment. The persistence of terrorism in the Sahel region could lead to further humanitarian crises and displacement of populations.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance intelligence-sharing and joint operations among regional countries.
• Invest in technological solutions for surveillance and border security.
• Strengthen community engagement to counter radicalization and recruitment by terrorist groups.

Outlook:

Best-Case: Strengthened regional cooperation leads to a decline in terrorist activities and improved security.

Worst-Case: Increased terrorist activities result in further destabilization and economic downturns.

Most Likely: Gradual improvements in security with ongoing challenges in certain hotspots.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report highlights significant individuals and organizations involved in counterterrorism efforts and regional security dynamics. These entities play crucial roles in shaping the strategic landscape and implementing recommended measures.